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I'm a little surprised this hasn't been brought up yet (Or maybe I missed it and it was determined to be Ho-hum?)

Here's a discussion from some people concerned about the inner working of FireCalc & its cousin cFiresim. especially with regards to how bonds were calculated, which lead to Mr Firesim researching it and coming up with a "new and improved" ie more realistic way of calculating a safe withdrawal rate. The results are bad. The new safe withdrawal rates are way lower than FireCalc et al have been telling us.


I used 1 Mil Portfolio split 50/50 stock/long interest rate, .3 fees to test. The 100% SWR for FireCalc is $36,582

Using 5 yr treasuries the SWR is $37,007. Using 30 yr Treasuries SWR was $36,074

In FireSim the asset classes are a bit different.

Using a 50/50 Stocks/bonds AA the SWR was: $32,530.55

Quite a variance.

Anybody have anything to say or do you see anything here I missed?
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