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So, you're asking (or maybe not), how has the CAPS1StarIndex done recently? I'll try to post semi-regular updates, but you'll at least get a report once per month when it comes time to rebalance the index.


On its first day of trading, 11/01/06, the CAPS1StarIndex had stellar performance, putting it in the top 10 players and gaining some reknown. In fact, it may hold the distinction of achieving the highest position on its first day of being ranked (but see the disclaimer below for why this isn't important):


Rating: 99.97

Rank: 5 out of 12000

Score: 322.78

Accuracy: 75.00%


It probably helped that the Index consists solely of underperform picks and the market as a whole was solidly down for the day.


However, its status on the leaderboard was not to last. About one week later (on 11/08/06), it had fallen to these terribly modest results:

Rating: 99.66

Rank: 43 out of 12412

Score: 265.98

Accuracy: 62.50%


After that, the Index showed its volatility, and experienced a rapid fall from grace. After another week or so (on 11/14/06), CAPS1StarIndex had plummeted to a slightly negative score:


Rating: 39.07

Rank: 7873 out of 12920

Score: -3.65

Accuracy: 53.00%


It's one-day score drop of -158.52 points earned it the dishonorable One-Day Coldest Player charm. Brrrr!


Two weeks later (on 11/30/06), the continued drop for the Index was enough to give me frostbite, and earned it the 30-Day Coldest Player charm. CAPS1StarIndex ended the month with a negative score of worse than -100 (it fell an additional -91.51 points just on that day alone):


Rating: 21.73

Rank: 11392 out of 14555

Score: -111.22 (-91.51)

Accuracy: 55.00%


A spiraling ride down for the first month, but early indications are that the 1Star ratings are not doing their job in telling us which stocks will actually underperform the market. In fact, they do the opposite, as our 200 stocks OUTperformed the market by an average of 0.55% each. We'll keep our eyes on the roller-coaster and wait for longer-term results to decide how best to interpret the performance of CAPS1StarIndex (and other available indices) and, ultimately, the CAPS system as a whole.




Disclaimers: All results are posted after market close and end-of-day calculation run. When considering the above performance numbers, keep in mind that performance of the CAPS1StarIndex is judged relative to the S&P500, not to other players in the game. Therefore, the performance of the indices should be gauged primarily on the score metric, and perhaps a little on the accuracy metric. The rank and rating metrics are not particularly useful and are only included for amusement purposes.

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