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You know, I have to say that I think the CAPS scoring system is biased towards those who short a stock. For example, if I think XYZ stock is going up from its current $20/share price and it does go up to $21, the CAPS scoring gives me a 10% gain. If the S&P goes up 5% in that same period, I have a score of 5.

 

Now, let's say that I think that XYZ stock is a loser, and I short the stock at $20/share and it goes up to $21. One would think that I lost 10%, and in the real world that is true. In the CAPS world, I get to subtract the 5% that the S&P gained during that same period and show only a -5 as a score for XYZ stock.

 

Now, in the real world my comparison to the S&P would be a whopping -15% because while I lost 10%, the S&P gained 5% during that same period.

 

This contest is about comparing oneself to the S&P, and I understand that. Your score is based on your ability to predict how a stock will do RELATIVE TO that benchmark. That score is a poor predictor of the result in real world dollars in the case of someone with numorous shorts though, if that is a significant issue to anyone.

 

 

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