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Another factor that might be mentioned with regard to predicting interest rates is that, if one's intention is to hold to maturity and the issue meets one's risk/reward profile, then the direction of future interest rates are irrelevant to a purchase made today except for some wishful, regretful, retrodictive opportunity losses that are always going to be the case and can never be captured, because investing is always a case of trading information risk against price risk, meaning, if one is pursuing better than average returns, one either has to be right more than average or able to correct mistakes better than average.

22% for the "experts"? That's an interesting result and the sort of number that makes for a useful contrarian indicator.

Thanks for your thoughtful reply.

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