https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8fiM0MqWJwInterview with Jonah Lupton
thanks for posting the video.
Good story, didn’t expect much out of the earnings but the outlook wasn’t too encouraging.https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/dermtech-reports-fourth-qu...I do have to go listen to the call but it still is very much a story and not showing signs of delivering.
Cologuard had about 2-3 years of YoY testing volume growing over 100%; dropped to 70% this Q for DMTK.Not releasing guidance is frustrating.Still going through the call but things I noted:-the atopic dermatitis market is to see who would respond to what therapy. This could be an intriguing test. I could imagine some insurers requiring it before approval of more expensive drug usage.-not sure I heard right, but they have like 10-15% of dermatologist market already prescribing at least one test. -their number of unique prescribers continued to increase QoQ. Cautiously optimistic. I think growth is still there, but might be slower than we were hoping for.
shouldnt they hypergrowth, everyone compare them to EXAS...honestly, I'm disappointed because sales growth isn't really picking up here! Reasons? If you have a real game changer (disrupter, cheaper, easier product) so why is this not speeding up?maybe we are too biased. Market Cap over 1b for tinny revenue. I hope that was not just a story stock. FUMA what you mean with growth is still there and slower then we were hoping for? I give them 1-2 quarter to show some growth here!
I am no expert. Just started watching this stock, but wouldn’t their sales abilities have been impacted by the pandemic, and shouldn’t they have tailwinds after? I am going to take a small starter position to keep an eye on it.jille
DMTK sure is interesting. One thing concerns me. Would love feedback from people following it more.Their ASP is still $193 for Q4 (1600000/8300). Medicare has been reimbursing at $760 from Jan. 2020, a full 15 months ago. https://investors.dermtech.com/news-releases/news-release-de...Medicare-based tests formed 18% of all tests in Q4. Even assuming ASP of $700 for Medicare tests it seems like the ASP for the non-medicare tests is only $80/test! Even after many Blue cross plans now approving this (the CEO claimed some 85 Million are being covered now) can the company really increase their ASP? I read that overall costs for the initial biopsy is $1000. This would suggest that insurance plans should have no issues in paying up $760. For Q1 21 they are projecting about the same level of revenue as of Q4 20 which suggests an ASP of <$200. Why is the company still unable to increase ASP? They also state in their remarks "We are also working with Medicare to resolve a recently identified claims adjudication programming issue, which results in a reduced number of paid claims by Medicare. Thus, while we expect revenue to grow, it is somewhat challenging for us to project the growth at this time"They also state this is unlikely to be resolved by Q1 21. Perhaps this is also putting pressure on the ASP?One final note. They had a Billable sample volume for the full year 2020 of approximately 24,000. The CEO expected 34,000 tests for 2021. A 40% rise in that seems somewhat low for such a new ground-breaking development.
Did some digging... There is no question about the convenience of the patches vs biopsy. Looks like the price may be the sticking point. Even though the company quotes biopsy costs $1000 and they are saving money by charging only $760 it appears dermatologists and payors may think otherwisehttps://www.mcdermatology.com/biopsy.htmlSo, $100-$300 for biopsy vs $760 for patches. I know Dermtech claims biopsies often end up costing a lot more than that. But the key question is whether the providers and payers are convinced. Could this explain their slower growth vs EXAS which took off much faster from late 2015?
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