No. of Recommendations: 4
"There are two kinds of forecasters: those who are wrong -- and those who know they are wrong."

--"Skip" Wilkerson
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
"There are two kinds of forecasters: those who are wrong -- and those who know they are wrong."

--"Skip" Wilkerson


“The sun will come out tomorrow”

-- Little Orphan Annie
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
Yeah, I did forecasting for call center volumes, among other things. One day that there were over 50k calls projected, my projection was off by one call. Less than 0.002% It was the closest I ever got, but I was still wrong. I knew I was going to be wrong with every forecast that I made. But it was okay - I just had to be close, not exactly correct.

AJ
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
IMHO Projections are accurate, not precise. All projections should come as a range, not an exact figure.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 2
IMHO Projections are accurate, not precise. All projections should come as a range, not an exact figure.

Nice theory, but it didn't work in my job. When forecasts are being used to actually schedule things - like forecasting and scheduling the number call center representatives needed to answer the calls I forecasted, the software that's used requires exact numbers, not ranges. Yes, I get that's building forecasts on forecasts, which just multiplies the errors. But I'm not sure how you'd run a call center effectively without at least trying to forecast those numbers.

And that's why I always knew I was never going to be right. Close enough was what I was aiming for.

AJ
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
When implementing something, scheduling people, purchasing supplies, specific numbers are required. You can't buy 1.6 bolts.

Many estimates in life are presented as absolutes, 5% expected return, not 3-7% with a 50% confidence. I suspect that if people were comfortable using ranges and confidence rather than absolute returns, we'd be better off.

BTW: with a sufficiently varied, cross-trained, and big staff, partial people can be scheduled, 1/2 at task A, 1/2 task B, with priorities as appropriate.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 3
For those who have access (I watched on Netflix) there is an interesting Nova (PBS) program on this very subject - Prediction by the Numbers. Fascinating how statistics and forecasting are used in almost every aspect of our lives now, whether we realize it or not.

DT
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
Here's a link to the pbs "Prediction" free showing:

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/prediction-by-the-number...
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
You can't buy 1.6 bolts.

Why not? ...you just get charged for 2

And then: https://tinyurl.com/y6o59ct4

Mike
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
You can't buy 1.6 bolts.

Why not? ...you just get charged for 2

You still bought 2 bolts, one is just shorter than it was originally.
Maybe if on was cut in two lengthwise?
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Fascinating how statistics and forecasting are used in almost every aspect of our lives now, whether we realize it or not.

I had to take a year of statistics in college just to get a General Studies in Social Science degree in 1972.
My daughter recently had to do the same thing, same college, for a publishing degree in 2011.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 0
Someone can make a lot of wrong predictions, but then get one right and all future books will trumpet "The guy who called the stock market peak of 2007." He may have missed the previous and subsequent lows, but you have to dig to find *that* info.
Print the post Back To Top
No. of Recommendations: 1
"Someone can make a lot of wrong predictions, but then get one right and all future books will trumpet "The guy who called the stock market peak of 2007." He may have missed the previous and subsequent lows, but you have to dig to find *that* info. "

******************************************************************

Have you ever tried to get an article published with the comment "Heavily invested during
the last three major recessions and lost fortunes!!!!" a focus for your resume?

Howie52
Print the post Back To Top