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now updated though March.

two of these look good but unemployment rate stuck at 4.1% since October. This should be watched closely. Because if it stays that way much longer it will be signalling a recession. I will start cutting back if the other two go south or unemployment stays this way for more than another 2 months. These signals are not part of my mechanical timing system because I can not quantify them, more early warnings. Like thunder, warns of a danger but does not say whether the storm will pass you by or hit you. So it is not highly actionable.

OTOH we may just have reached the point where 4.1 % of the unemployed may say they are seeking work but actually don't want work at any salary close to their skill level, or are unwilling to move to areas where jobs are plentiful. There must be a percentage of people that fit this but we have no idea of the exact figure .
I have a friend who lives near the Permian basin in West Texas. A real boom town area. He says nearly anybody who is breathing can get a job the same day they apply. Truck drivers are scarce and highly paid, but you have to pass a drug test, disqualifying many who would rather have their drugs than a job.
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