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Your long term results will depend on;
1) how much you contribute.
2) Your asset allocation (stocks/bonds/other)
3) Which funds you select.

Don't fret too much about much about which funds to select as long as they don't have loads or extremely high costs, most of your results will depend on the first two items. When looking at the funds don't forget to check for 12.1b costs and the more turnover there is the higher the trading costs are, both of these are not in the normal expense ratio that they list. These could bump the yearly expenses on some of these funds to over 1% higher than the Vanguard fund. One percent a year for 40 years is basically 40% of your money. They should be darn good funds to be worth this.

... I cannot touch this money (without penalty/interest) until age 59.....
After getting any employer match, you can look into contributing to a Roth IRA instead of the 401k because you can always withdrawal your contibutions from a Roth without a penality.

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