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No. of Recommendations: 4
FWIW, I made a spreadsheet using the monthly stock market data dating back to the 1870s and there has been NO period since then that you would have come out ahead paying off a 5% 30 year mortgage.

Even more telling is the best and worst cases. Using a 30 yr, $200k loan at 5% and applying $1k per month either to the loan or an S&P index fund, the WORST you would have done with the index fund is $8000 ahead.

OTOH, the BEST you would have done by putting $1000 in an index fund is nearly $2.6 MILLION ahead!

The median amount you would have been ahead with the index fund is $286k.

Certainly, paying off your house isn't likely to be a bad decision, but these numbers tell me that I'm nearly assured of reaching my FIRE goals sooner through investing vs. paying off my mortgage.

-murray
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