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Gao of MIT and his co-authors used an integrated earth-system model to look at permafrost melting and methane release. They found the effects to be small. By 2100 the additional warming would be less than 0.1°C. The authors conclude "Overall, this biogeochemical global climate-warming feedback is relatively small whether or not humans choose to constrain global emissions."

Old carbon reservoirs unlikely to cause massive greenhouse gas release
Researchers at the University of Rochester -- including Michael Dyonisius...studied methane emissions from a period in Earth's history partly analogous to the warming of Earth today. Their research, published in Science, indicates that even if methane is released from these large natural stores in response to warming, very little actually reaches the atmosphere.

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