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Gene is a quality analyst in my book. Thanks for the link it was worth the watch.

As a long term share holder (continuously since the iMac was first announced) I have seen apples PE all over the place. We are well past the point people are telling the company to close down and return the equity to shareholders. In some sense buybacks and dividends are doing that right now.

At this point comparing Apple to KO and PG is kind of cherry picking at this point. I would start considering reducing my position if Apple makes it to 25 PE. The law of large numbers has already forced apple to diversify into multiple product lines and services more.

Lets look at some other companies semi comparable to apple.
NOK - PE 16
AMD - 176 (Fwd 56)
GOOG - 27
DELL - 13
MSFT - 28

just off the top of my head.

So now I think that yes given apples consistent performance, that 25 could be deserved.

However I also think that stocks are pretty richly priced right now overall.
If we start seeing wages increase and China trade wars subside, I think the economy will continue to rise.

As much as an apple fan that I am, I think long term investors will be fine, but be aware of macro risks as well for short term (next year election, tariff drags) If everything was great, we would see the fed tightening more instead of lowering rates.


Disclosure, (hold too much apple from a diversification perspective and wrote a few covered calls for portfolio mgmt purposes, and have been selling a bit to put my kids through college :) )
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