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Frankfurt, Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- German industrial production probably increased for the first time in three months in November, analysts said, after reports Friday showed demand from abroad rose.

Production at factories, construction sites, utilities and mines probably rose 0.6 percent from the previous month, according to the median forecast of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. Production fell 1.3 percent in October. 

Exports boosted factory orders and pushed the trade surplus to a record high in November. SAP AG, which sells most of its business-management software abroad, said Thursday 2002 sales gained ``slightly.' Even so, business confidence fell to a 11- month low in December and unemployment reached a 4 1/2-year high. 

``We will just avoid a recession,' said Karsten Junius, an economist at DekaBank AG in Frankfurt. ``Exports are surprisingly strong. The problem is we can't get the domestic economy going.' 

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