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GH,

It is a very interesting situation. Dish is the weakest media company. They have no real leaverage over the industry. For instance when News corp's Direct TV goes to bid on content they can use Fox as leaverage against other players wishes for a price hike. Dish is out in the cold.

If Via gets a rate hike then all the others will want one. Dish was known as the cheaper competitor...that is about to end abruptly. Dish is sold at Radio Shack while DirTV is sold at Circuit City and Best Buy. Radio Shack only amounts to some sales if it has the cheaper competitor.

Via wins this battle either way. Sooner or later Dish has to give in or fade away out of business. If they fade, but sign up a few weeks from now for more money they are never going to recoupe from this blow.

Charlie has stated that Via and Dish are on the verge of an agreement. I think this is not quite honest...but dont want to get in trouble on a message board for framing that in other terms. Charlie is totally trapped by all of it, not just his own actions.

Via is holding all the cards.

And if Charlies semi promises of signing a contract with via at any moment dont happen fast they there will be shareholder law suits against Dish in the next month or so. Charlie will probably be out of a job if he does not hold a large enough stake. In all likelihood Charlie does not hold much of the stock since it is mainly held by institutions.

Which brings up a different problem. While the stock has been doing well in the face of the problems, the institutions are hestitating to get out. But this will wear thin very fast. Dish has to be revalued by this fiasco in the very short term...like right away...and Dish may never regain any of the lost value. So sometime soon the institutional guys are going to figure this all out and dump the stock. The last one out will be left holding the bag.

Never mind the fact that the stock market is in a big sell off that has only just begun.

JMO

db
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