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No. of Recommendations: 4
good news / bad news

Good news is we had a bump today. Back "up" to a -6% YTD. Yay me.

Bad news is I didn't have more invested in that run, nor were my stocks the strongest runners today.

But that is ok. I am ok with being slower on the way up, if I was also slower on the way down. Where we finish up at end of 2022 is most important, because all I care about is CAGR.

So what now?
I would like to believe I am happy enough with the cost basis of my current positions, that I am just going to let it ride, up or down, for a while now.

If you had asked me on Jan 1st if I would buy SPG, PTLO, and GLBE at the prices I bought near open, the answer would have been "absolutely". Macro market does change things. Think about starting investing in 1999, as I did. Things were great, and then horrible. And the great was just a few months, and the horrible lasted a couple years. So timing does matter. Not every company will result in an AMZN, nor will just any company be able to sustain a 50-90% haircut and have it hardly look like a speed bump a few years later. So GLBE at $30 feels great now, but what if it falls to $20 in a couple months? Just getting back to $30 would be a 50% gain.

That is the sort of thing I think about.
Still have a lot of dry powder. I don't think we capitulated, but if I am wrong and we never look back and GLBE hits $60 in a month, I will happily take that 100% gain. By the same token, if this was a short-lived relief rally, I still have my "oh crap" targets in place, for those 3 stocks and others, if it should come to pass.

One thing is for sure. I have a day job, and I find the macro trading stuff interesting and could see myself doing it more when retired, but this type of concentration is unsustainable for both work and investing (not to mention family time, personal time).

So I am reaching, or perhaps have reached, a point where I am ready to let stuff ride. I have targets if another leg down. I have exit targets in mind if only-up from here. I have a plan. Watching the tickers/news feeds won't help much more at this point.

We needed stocks to get re-valued, and they have. I would argue many still need much more, but over next 12 months, I am feeling "ok" at current cost basis. Time to pull back a bit and let time do its thing.

Enjoy the weekend.

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