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No. of Recommendations: 3
GorillaGorilla,

............6/99....9/99....12/99....2/00.....6/00
Oracle.......44......31......49.......49......113

............6/99....9/99....12/99....3/00.....6/00
Siebel......110......126.....170.....190.......???


Do we agree that providing Oracle keeps this pace then Siebel will no longer be a Gorilla or do we think that Oracle has been to liberal as what counts towards CRM?


No, I don't agree. First, I don't believe Oracle's numbers. Second, look at the trend even if you do believe them. 6/00 licensing is up 157% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. On a base of much, much higher numbers, Siebel's is up about 80% if I remember correctly.

If Oracle doubles revenue a year from now, their 6/01 licensing revenue will be $226 million. If Siebel only grows only 50% in the next twelve months, their 6/01 licensing revenue will be about $300 million. If they continue to grow 80%, it will be more than $350 million.

The best anecdotal evidence I can come up with that Oracle will never unseat Siebel is that Larry Ellison is no longer saying when the company will surpass Siebel, having been proven wrong every single time in his many past prognostications. But maybe he'll give me a good laugh and start ranting again about it.

--Mike Buckley

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