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No. of Recommendations: 2
Growth is not quite what it seems at first glance.

To get a long-term view on what Apple has been doing, and where it's likely heading, I think one really needs to look at operating income. The per-share results are misleading in that much of that improvement is due to Apple putting to use cash that was generated years ago; soon that "one-time" bonus will expire. Sure, they will continue to plow back most FCF into ongoing share buybacks, but at current valuations, that won't be much bang for the buck...about a 4% earnings yield on those purchases. And to look at net income is deceiving due to the large tax cut two years ago; sure, that's real money, but it was a one-time bump up (and there's a reasonable chance that will be reversed, at least to an extent, depending on the 2020 elections.

Even looking at topline revenue, the 5-year CAGR for Q1 is only 4.3%. But for operating income, that's only grown 1% CAGR for five years, 3% over three years. And that anemic result happened precisely during the time that services and wearable were on a tear. Going forward, much of the increase in services will be in relatively low-margin areas (e.g, trying to fight their way into streaming services). And while wearables should do fine, that may just simply offset the declining income from iPhone. 5G is mostly hype; it will not likely change the long-term upgrade frequency for iPhone, nor the net margin.

The main things that might lead to growth that comes close to justifying the current valuation is 1) a major move from the Android world to iPhone (unlikely), or 2) augmented reality glasses done in a home-run kind of way (like the iPhone).
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