Growth is not quite what it seems at first glance.To get a long-term view on what Apple has been doing, and where it's likely heading, I think one really needs to look at operating income. The per-share results are misleading in that much of that improvement is due to Apple putting to use cash that was generated years ago; soon that "one-time" bonus will expire. Sure, they will continue to plow back most FCF into ongoing share buybacks, but at current valuations, that won't be much bang for the buck...about a 4% earnings yield on those purchases. And to look at net income is deceiving due to the large tax cut two years ago; sure, that's real money, but it was a one-time bump up (and there's a reasonable chance that will be reversed, at least to an extent, depending on the 2020 elections.Even looking at topline revenue, the 5-year CAGR for Q1 is only 4.3%. But for operating income, that's only grown 1% CAGR for five years, 3% over three years. And that anemic result happened precisely during the time that services and wearable were on a tear. Going forward, much of the increase in services will be in relatively low-margin areas (e.g, trying to fight their way into streaming services). And while wearables should do fine, that may just simply offset the declining income from iPhone. 5G is mostly hype; it will not likely change the long-term upgrade frequency for iPhone, nor the net margin. The main things that might lead to growth that comes close to justifying the current valuation is 1) a major move from the Android world to iPhone (unlikely), or 2) augmented reality glasses done in a home-run kind of way (like the iPhone).
When did you sell your Apple? When did you get completely out of the market? Seem to recall last summer some time? Thanks.
Apple’s better-than expected Q1 2020: What the analysts are sayingEverybody was impressed (except Commoncents33) . Many gave their price targets another nudge.Excerpts from the notes I’ve seen, new entries on top:Rod Hall, Goldman Sachs: Beat and raise on iPhone strength though Services missed our forecast. We move our forward estimates up as iPhone demand continues to surprise on the upside. However, we continue to believe consensus forecasts assume an optimistic scenario for the end of this year. Services missed our forecast and decelerated both Q/Q and Y/Y though commentary on why this was the case was unclear on the call in our opinion. Wearables came in exceptionally strong as expected in spite of supply constraints for both the Apple Watch Series 3 and Airpods Pro. We believe this report is more than Apple needed to deliver to continue its recent momentum. Neutral. Raises price target to $300 from $192 (!).Matthew Cabral, Credit Suisse: Return to iPhone Growth Drives a Sizable Beat. Apple’s very strong C4Q is clearly a positive, though with the stock up >30% over the past 90 days a fair amount of this was likely priced in. Investor attention is already shifting toward the highly-anticipated launch of a 5G iPhone in 2H20; key debates include the impact on the replacement cycle and Apple’s pricing strategy given an expected uptick in BOM costs. Neutral. Raises price target to $290 from $275.Timothy Arcuri, UBS: Increase Estimates On iPhone Strength. Apple reported a strong quarter exceeding higher expectations with revenue $2.3B above the high-end of the guide and almost 4% above consensus driven by iPhone + continued strength in Wearables (now the size of a Fortune 150 company with a very long runway given low attach-rate. Buy. $355.Michael Olson, Piper Sandler: Dec Qtr Upside Driven by iPhone & Wearables; 5G on Horizon. Looking at the remainder of FY20, Apple is in the midst of a perfect storm, with current iPhone performing above plan, non-iPhone (especially wearables) trending strongly and growing anticipation for 5G iPhones that will be coming late in the fiscal year. Overweight. Raises price target to $343 from $305.Wamsi Mohan, BofA/Merrill Lynch: Strong EPS revisions were needed and they came. With strong positive estimate revisions following earnings we see the following points confirming continued strength (1) Revenue from iPhones in F1Q20 was strong and we estimate more than 70mn units sold, (2) Channel inventory was not a tailwind to iPhone revenues in the Dec quarter as iPhone channel inventory remains low to normal, (3) Wider revenue range for March qtr guide de-risks impact from coronavirus, (4) Demand for Wearables exceeds Supply, (4) Gross margins in Dec and Mar quarters remain strong despite strong revenue from Wearables (which is margin dilutive), (5) Commodity prices are a tailwind in the Mar quarter, (6) Buybacks were strong in F1Q ($20bn) and we expect a new buyback authorization to be announced during next earnings, (7) The iPhone installed base is growing and significant penetration of Services usage is still to be realized with Apple tracking to 600mn subscriptions vs prior 500mn exiting 2020, (8) TV+ is yet to have material impact to services, (9) China growth (product and services) transitorily hindered by HK protests and (10) Net cash went up despite $20bn share repurchase (vs $15bn expected) and $3.5bn in dividends. Buy. Raises target to $350 from $340.Samik Chatterjee, J.P. Morgan: The Wow Quarter. Apple pleasantly surprised investors on multiple fronts, but most importantly materially exceeded investor expectations on iPhone revenues, which returned to growth in the quarter much ahead of investor expectations. Overweight. Raises target to $350 from $300. Aaron Rakers, Wells Fargo: Positive Results Driven By Strong iPhone 11 Cycle And Services. While Services rev. was slightly below consensus expectations, Apple’s subscriber base expansion is likely more notable – now expecting 600M+ paid subscriptions by the end of C2020 vs. prior expectations of 500M. Equal Weight. Raises target to $315 from $245. Amit Daryanani, Evercore: With Prints Like These, Who Needs A Supercycle? This was a more impressive print/guide vs. expectations. While we understand China-centric concerns – fundamentally – the stock continues to have an upside bias as AAPL benefits from the trifecta of iPhone volumes picking up, services growth driven by ARPU uplift, and sustained acceleration on wearables. Outperform. Raises target to $365 from $360.Daniel Ives, Wedbush: Cook Comes Out Swinging and Blows Away Street Estimates. Last night Apple reported its FY1Q20 (December) results which were markedly ahead of Street estimates and will be viewed positively by the Street this morning as iPhone 11 strength continues to look strong both domestically as well as internationally with China a clear star of the show despite the noise. We would characterize these results and guidance as a “blow out” print that will put more high-octane fuel in the bull thesis looking ahead. Outperform. $400. Gene Munster, Loup Ventures: Apple Strengthens Its Case for a Higher Multiple. We see an emerging paradigm where investors acknowledge that the company has proven its combination of over 1.5B active devices (up 8% from last year) wrapped in software and Services can deliver reliable earnings well ahead of its peers. ****For example, this year Apple’s GAAP earnings will essentially equal the combined profit from Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. Despite this, investors value Apple’s market cap at $1.4T compared to the $3T market cap of the other three companies combined.***https://www.ped30.com/2020/01/29/apple-analysts-saying-q1-20...
Here is your post on the BRK board that indicates you had gone to 90% cash:https://www.ped30.com/2020/01/29/apple-analysts-saying-q1-20...Thus, the impetus for my question.If you've stayed 90%+ in cash since then, you missed out on some significant gains. BRK $203/share then, now $224/share +10% AAPL $204.23/share then, now $323/share +58%S&P 500 2,990 then, now 3243 +8%
"Here is your post on the BRK board that indicates you had gone to 90% cash:"Sorry, here is your post dated 7/5/19:Title: "Disaster on the Horizon"https://boards.fool.com/quota-disaster-lies-on-the-horizonqu..."I was already moving aggressively to cash, but this cemented my resolve, and am now at 90% T-bills. To me the point is his comments--with which I totally agree: there will be a run for the exits, and "a disaster lies on the horizon". "Looks like that call was expensive in terms of lost opportunity. Do you still believe this?
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