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Really educational podcast / audio posted on AWealthofCommonSense, talking to Corey Hoffstein, founder of Newfound Research (https://thinknewfound.com).
Global Tactical Asset Allocation formalized into their own index, and switching among major asset classes based on momentum and trend - for risk reduction.

Sound familiar? This happens to be what several here (including me) have done for a few years now - but Mr. Hoffstein has turned it into an investment advisory approach & firm.

Worth 20 minutes of your time.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/12/talk-your-book-the-...

FC
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Really educational podcast / audio posted on AWealthofCommonSense, talking to Corey Hoffstein, founder of Newfound Research (https://thinknewfound.com).
Global Tactical Asset Allocation formalized into their own index, and switching among major asset classes based on momentum and trend - for risk reduction.

Sound familiar? This happens to be what several here (including me) have done for a few years now - but Mr. Hoffstein has turned it into an investment advisory approach & firm.

Worth 20 minutes of your time.

https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2019/12/talk-your-book-the-......

FC


How has it worked for you? I do generalized protective momentum, and I have bond like returns.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
How has it worked for you?

It's worked exactly as expected It reduces drawdowns in a down market. It's nearly equaled Vanguard's 60/40 index fund over the last 3 years. Because it's not built to be 100% equity, you can't compare it to an all-stock index.

Drawbacks:
- requires decent time investment in tracking relative and absolute momentum of asset classes (less time than trading MI screens, and this is a hobby so whatever)
- the more assets you decide to put into the system, the more trading you do monthly
- requires discipline in following the model
- as predicted, as the S&P500 has kicked the @ss of every other asset class the last 10 years running, in its long bull market, outperformance above a 60/40 or 50/50 index has been short-lived.

FC
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All that said - my need is to minimize drawdowns, I'm (hopefully) within 5 years of "retirement". The results for my whole portfolio (global equity classes (including MI in the US equity portion) real estate, fixed income classes and cash)

2015: -2.5% to VBINX -1.5%
2016: .2% to VBINX 6.7%
2017: 15.6% to VBINX 11.4%
2018: -2% to VBINX -5%
2019: 8.2% to VBINX 18.8% (as of now)

Total 5 year return is 22.1% of "GTAA & Cash" (excluding negative of MI screens).
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FC,

I'm very much in your position (retired last March) and am doing similar with my entire portfolio (tweaked GTAA using mostly ETFs and index funds). Results are comparable:

2015: -2.4%
2016: 8.3%
2017: 13.5%
2018: -5%
2019: 15%

Total 5 year is 31.1%

Larry
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I'm curious.
Your return was about half that of SPY over this period. Unless the max drawdown or LDDD3 is a lot less than that of SPY, why not just B&H
SPY or some other index, maybe the equal weighted version?

rrjjgg
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No. of Recommendations: 5
Not sure which one of us you're asking, but comparing GTAA against SPY is a total apples to oranges comparison. Yes, over the long haul, the downside risk of GTAA is much less than SPY, although you may very well have to give up a bit of return. I'm not expecting the future to be anywhere near as good as the last 5 years, which I consider a bit of an outlier (if I'm wrong I still end up doing fine). In my case, I have plenty of retirement savings as long as I can avoid the big bear drawdowns and simply beat inflation by a point or two.

Larry
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