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>> But $10,000 in the S&P 500 at the end of 2002 became $14,000 at the end of 2004.

That's a 40% gain in two years.
<<

Heh, but $10,000 in the S&P 500 at the end of 1999 was still only worth $8250 at the end of 2004.

I'm not saying that one should be jumping in and out of the market each year. I'm saying that broad trends have occured in the past. It's likely they will do so in the future. There HAVE been DECADES where the market (indexes) returned less than 3%. And those decades occurred when the P/E ratio was as high as it now.

I'll get back in the market over the next couple of years... Probably too fast, but one thing is true.. I won't know when the next bull market will start, so it's best that we're full invested.

FYI - there has never been a bear market that only lasted two years... There are rallies inside a bear market however...

Of course, there's also drops during a bull market... so the question is... will the market head back up past it's old peak? Or will it falter from the current rally and continue heading down...

See, I just can't dump it all in the market today... because history points to us being in a bear market.. and if I did dump it in, THAT would be market timing...

So I'll go slow... If the market drops, I'll get in cheaper.. If it goes up, I'll have a little in to enjoy some of the gains.


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