Skip to main content
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
No. of Recommendations: 3
>> I am thinking that 6% is a safe withdrawal rate if you start at the right time of the market cycle.. where this is I am not sure, but probably at the start of a secular bull (where P/E's are at or near historic lows). Then the compounding growth will raise much faster than your equity withdrawals. <<

The problem with this is that if you retire at the start of a secular bull, your portfolio has probably been mauled by bears in the months/years just before your retirement date. So the withdrawal amount which would be 6% at the start of this secular bull might have been 4% before the bear market began, especially if the bear is accompanied by high inflation.

Unless, of course, your crystal ball was working flawlessly and told you to move everything into bonds and cash just ahead of the bear market just before your retirement. I don't think mine works that well. :-)

Print the post  


What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.
When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.