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>> Yes rate of return on investments is one of the big IF's. But I figure for 320k at a 6% real growth (assuming there is 2% inflation) you get 573 in 10 years- add in extra savings through that time and you should be able to FIRE in 10 years for sure! <<

I currently assume an 8% *nominal* rate of return (at least for the first few years) and 3.5% inflation. As I grow older, I gradually reduce the nominal rate assumptions to 7.5% at age 45, and then reduce it by 0.1% per year until it's 5.5% at 65 and beyond to reflect a gradual shift toward income (instead of growth) and reduced volatility.

Obviously when I said I'd need about $1M, that's in current, real dollars. In a decade, whatever reduced amount I might need would be offset by inflation, so it could still be a million or more in *nominal* dollars.

Most of my assumptions, at least historically, are pretty conservative and based on slightly pessimistic assumptions. I'd much rather be surprised on the upside than the downside. Assuming health care inflation of 8% per year going forward (a WAG to be sure, and depends on a lot of factors), my spreadsheet tells me I can probably make it by around age 49 to 52.

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