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>>Baby boom.

Boomers need to invest for retirement. Most will have lost some money in the tech bust <<

>>(I'm down a bit over 10% non-house worth)<<

I think you have been very fortunate. Most investors are "down" substantially more than that from their "highs."

>>Most invest in mutual funds. Sooner or later, the mutuals will again think that tech is The Great Thing.<<

Do "most" really invest in mutual funds? I don't know anyone who has the majority of his/her portfolio in mutual funds.

Let me tell you how I agree with you.

I believe we will see some movement of money into mutual funds this year. The greater amount of this money will be money that belongs to investors who invested in mutual funds before the tech market boom and as a result have a history, albeit somewhat fractured, of belief in patriarchal management of their investment dollars.

As part of the "I've lost how much money?" investing for myself and "What do I do with my money, our family's money now" "Guaranteed vehicles pay next to nothing" investment choice process, some investors will choose mutual funds for 2001.

And this group will be making a mistake. Many mutual fund managers are not any more competent than the average investor. Most of these people were hired during the last decade of prosperity and have little or no experience with a sustained downturn. Many investors who are shocked at the downturn in their net worth, who invested on their own during 98-00, who choose mutual funds this year will simply experience another downturn in their portfolios.

But it is to the advantage of large institutions and "financial planners" and institution analysts to make you think that the only problem is that you invested for yourself in the aforementioned years. After all, they make more money if you pay management fees and front and rear end loads and portfolio analysis fees and .... So they will all rush to your support on this board and in life.

>>And the next boom/bust cycle will begin<<

Not for a very long time if the Fed does not ease again aggressively and immediately.
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