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>>GMH's main hold is Direct TV, a digital satellite TV service...And yet, satellites are bandwidth limited, and are therefore increasingly getting passed over in favor of DSL and cable (esp fiber optic) in the communications sector. Heck, I'm typing this now via RoadRunner, a cable modem service. And I know a lot of cable companies are laying down large fiber optic networks, to provide large bandwidth for not just TV and computers, but your home phone as well. Is this going to cut in to satellite TV market in a few years?<<

Speaking off the cuff here:

I believe the real value of DirecTV is its subscriber base and potential for integrating various mobile services. I'm pretty sure that possible acquirers are less concerned with the bandwidth issue and more so with access. The point of buying Hughes would be to control access (i.e. programming) onto it's satellites and subscribers. By cutting out the middleman (cable providers) a media conglomerate could "force" people to watch their programming. Net access is a secondary consideration...plus you can always put another bird in orbit to increase capacity (esp. after Iridium's burn up ;) ). Again, the value of Hughes is tied to its satellites and network. Having satellites allows people to access the network from anywhere. For instance, it could be quite possible to install some sort of reciever in your car to get directions to some place en route, find out where the nearest petrol station is, etc... Cable and Telephones can't quite do that. But a satellite system can. Who knows what kind of synergies are possible. So Hughes is a growth story and not an earnings one; which is not to say that a value can not be placed on it. However, whatever valuation model you use will probably be highly input sensitive and provide a wide range of values given small changes in inputs.

BTW- I think you meant to say "Let's look at some hard FUNDAMENTAL analysis..."

Cheers,
Sugar
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