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>>Oil and gas dominate our lives, and their decline will change the world in radical and unpredictable ways," he says.

The ways this will change our lives (and when) are hard to predict, but I DO think this is a fruitful field for thinking and talking. In other words I do think predictions can be made.

Predictions are never easy and the usual case is they are wrong. Professional forecasters are not surprised to be off-target, it is well known that nobody has a crystal ball that works -- those that claim to are something less than professional forecasters.

And my own opinion about forecasting, it seems the popular stories are a LOT less interesting than what usually turns out to be true. So I look for the most boring scenario that will get by, and think that will tend to be what will happen.

I would find it interesting to hear people's *optimistic* opinions about how the world will cope. Almost every time they will be less exciting, less interesting than the pessimistic scenarios. So the "soft landing" type of opinions require some encouragement to come out.

Personally I would take the list of alternative technologies, and observe that every single one of them will grow closer to economic viability with higher oil and gas prices. Each would be expected to grow and increase market share, only a few will be the workhorses the world will rely on big-time.

Best of luck -- C44
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