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Guiding Light
from New Money Masters, John Train with the profile on Peter Lynch

Lynch's believes in the old trader's rule: If you buy a stock because you hope something will happen, and it doesn't happen, sell the stock. Wall Street has a sardonic expression for this idea: "An investment is a speculation that didn't work out". You had an idea, based on an expectation; you were wrong. So now you really have no reason to own the stock and should sell it cleanly and quickly. Lynch says he often sells too soon: "But you don't get hurt by the things that you don't own that go up. It's what you do own that kills you."

If it matters, if you haven't read One Up and Beating (Lynch's two books) you should - the category system and two minute drills (which are more inclusive of industry related data) automatically provide pre-made thesis statements (if done correctly) that obviously change if the category changes...the rest of this is more based on your particular style and approach. I like to use 'key factors' in my thesis statements (made up out of thin air but usually based on my judgement and the factoids that seem to matter most for the business).

If it matters, I didn't have much of a thesis on CMG - other than it was a spec (very small position) and I thought it would trade higher because it was a fast grower and the unit growth and accelerating same store sales would move it back up - except the latest SSS were below expectations and more significantly management intentionally ratcheted down the unit growth rate which meant that a high valuation, relatively speaking, was likely not warranted (for now - could change quickly but unit growth was not going to accelerate until late 2019 per management; I wasn't willing to wait). In essence, perhaps this was drivel going in, so...

if you read the thread for BGM's idea on BGFV it made me uneasy because the details he provided made it hard to write a compelling thesis statement - using his words. But my feeling doesn't mean much - he has a different style - just make money and all that.

Saul on his board is great with consistent thesis statements...growth, growth, growth...

just 2c
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