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Happy New Year 2022 Everyone!

Since Q4 is in the books for most companies, below are the updated prices for the morning of January 2, 2022 to continue the roaring 20's. ;-)

Not too much new since the last post. Facebook has changed their name to META Platforms, Inc., Nvidia had a stock split, Microsoft has flexed its muscle, Salesforce acquired Slack, Oracle announced their intent to purchase Cerner, and the S&P 500 made a good run for the year.

A general reminder that this thread is simply a look at some of the important large technology companies that hold a dominant percentage in their respective markets (with amazing DCFs), and how the stocks have done since March 16, 2008 when a poster rightfully challenged the premise of investing for the longer haul with such companies in what he thought was an overvalued market at the time.

The poster that challenged the premise and has since joined in with some discussion about market timing and his/her version of thoughts on technology companies that may or may not be involved in the technology adoption life cycle as we know from the Moore books on this board:

LifeForceDancr (Elmer Fudd)

Aliases:
LifeForceDance (7/16/2015), HelpfuLFD (10/23/2005), lifeforcedancerr (8/1/2005), lifeforcedanceri (3/14/2005), Hacktester (11/27/2002), Transfigurement (3/25/2002), LifeForceDancer (2/18/2002), stvfox (8/20/2001)

LifeForceDancr challenged the premise when he said this on 3/16/2008:

This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

As well as this...in a previous post on this board from March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet was Right where he said:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

And so it is - at least while I'm still posting. How has the height of Foolishness panned out since those posts for investors who stuck to basic investing principles - especially with regard to the technology adoption life cycle - regarding long term buy and hold? I will add the caveat that Buffett is not keen on timing the market. One of his famous quotes from his 1998 shareholder letter says “Our favourite holding period is forever.”

You can read more quotes from Buffett and thoughts on market timing from an article by Larry Swedroe here:

https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/panic-and-sell-now-what/

To be fair, markets did indeed experience a mega-drop with the S&P 500 dropping 56.8% during the financial crisis from Q4 of 2007 to Q1 of 2009. It was the second mega-drop of 50% or more (or reversion to the mean event) for the majority of current investors had experienced following the previous dot-com bust earlier in that decade. History guides us that investors will indeed see more of those in the future since, on average, such mega-drops come along every 18 years or so. They are a feature of the stock market.

In spite of that, here we are today as investors still focused on the longer term and seeing how the dominant technology companies and their share prices have performed (including the drops). Some of the companies are doing better than others these days, but in aggregate the basket still remains a viable long term buy and hold up to this point as does their dominance and ability to flex their muscle and expand into other areas/markets.

This latest update is for January 2, 2022:

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08

AMZN 1/2/22 = $3343.33
AMZN 7/9//21 = $3719.34
AMZN 11/25/20 = $3181.19
AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 4,925.3% since 3/16/08

*INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08

INTC 1/2/22 = $51.59
INTC 7/9/21 = $55.99
INTC 11/25/20 = $47.08
INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 45.2% since 3/16/08

*MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08

MSFT 1/2/22 = $336.79
MSFT 7/9/21 = $277.94
MSFT 11/25/20 = $213.90
MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 1,420.5% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08

GOOGL 1/2/22 = $2900.00
GOOGL 7/9/21 = $2510.37
GOOGL 11/25/20 = $1768.85
GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 1,279.9% since 3/16/08

*NVDA on that date closed at $4.21 on 3/16/08

NVDA 1/2/22 = $294.28
NVDA 7/9/21 = $200.44
NVDA 11/25/20 = $129.43
NVDA 6/9/20 = $90.33
NVDA 1/17/20 = $62.16
Up 6,890% since 3/16/08

*ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08

ORCL 1/2/22 = $87.38
ORCL 7/9/21 = $87.76
ORCL 11/25/20 = $57.43
ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 403.3% since 3/16/08

*QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08

QCOM 1/2/22 = $182.76
QCOM 11/25/20 = $145.41
QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 492.8% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08

CRM 1/2/22 = $254.15
CRM 7/9/21 = $245.06
CRM 11/25/20 = $254.12
CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 1,731% since 3/16/08

*AAPL on that date closed at $4.05 on 3/16/08

AAPL 1/2/22 = $177.72
AAPL 7/9/21 = $145.11
AAPL 11/25/20 = $116.15 (Accounts for the 4 for 1 split)
AAPL 6/9/20 = $86.08
AAPL 1/17/20 = $78.95
Up 4,288.1% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08

NFLX 1/2/22 = $604.50
NFLX 7/9/21 = $535.98
NFLX 11/25/20 = $483.45
NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 12,734.4% since 3/16/08

FB (META) closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12

FB 1/2/22 = $337.46
FB 7/9/21 = $350.42
FB 11/25/20 = $275.77
FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 782.7% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08

BRKB 1/2/22 = $299.22
BRKB 7/9/21 = $280.49
BRKB 11/25/20 = $233.10
BRDB 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 252.4% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 3,181.2% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 252.4% gain since Lifeforcedancr's post on March 16, 2008 and the S&P 500's 270% advance since 3/16/08.

S&P 500 on 3/16/08 = 1288.14
S&P 500 on 1/17/20 = 3329.62
S&P 500 on 11/25/20 = 3627.29
S&P 500 on 7/9/21 = 4369.55
S&P 500 on 1/2/22 = 4766.18
Up 270% since 3/16/08

BB

Full Disclosure: I do own individual shares in all of the stocks listed above (yes, including Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B). I have been working for one of the technology companies listed above the past 4 years, and I have a daughter who works for another one of the technology companies listed above for the past 5 years.
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This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.
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This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

I think it is fair to say there has been zero "noise" on this board which has remained dormant for a decade or more.

Your last post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 ($1408 this morning)
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 ($46 this morning)
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 ($90 this morning)
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 ($1103 this morning)
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 ($228 this morning)
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 ($49 this morning)
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 ($65 this morning)
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 ($108 this morning)
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 ($159 this morning)
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 ($263 this morning)
FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 ($188 this morning)

Of course, throw in the dividends for those above that pay dividends to get the total return to see how right or wrong Warren Buffett was with regard to technology investing for the leaders.

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 ($205.50 this morning)

BB (strong believer in Buffett as well and hold Berkshire as well as plenty of the technology stocks listed above sans ORCL - both in index funds as well as individual shares)

P.S. You are correct - this board should remain at the Fool to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.
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Edit for poor typing performance...

FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12 ($188 this morning)
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A lot of stocks look pretty good from 2008 crash.

From about March thru Oct 2000 I was still scratching my head trying to understand the valuations of CSCO, JNPR, and RBAK.

Cisco is doing quite well, as a company. It's stock has still never reached the peak from 2000 though. Juniper has lost their way a bit and settled into a $10b market cap after being about 10x that in 2000. Good ol' Redback Networks got sold to Ericsson for about their IPO price or so...hard to find historical stock charts for RBAK, but pretty sure they got up to about $20b and IPO was $1-2b so they also dropped 10-20x from their peak.

MSFT has only recently reclaimed their 2000 highs.

In hindsight we are all geniuses, but if I could do it over again, starting in mid-1999 (when I, unfortunately, first started having extra income to invest) I would:

Save money for 10 years, put it towards a house and take the rest and buy stocks (berkshire, aapl, amzn, nflx, googl...doesn't really matter which ones almost) in April 2009.

You literally could have just saved money for a decade.

Plan B with hindsight and a crystal ball would be:
Save money from 1999 until Oct 2001 then invest in anything and sell it all in 2007.
Wait 2 years, buy it all back.


Market timing, historical market conditions/crashes, and having cash on hand all do matter.
Unfortunately no one was really talking about that in 1999-2000.

-Dreamer
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In hindsight we are all geniuses, but if I could do it over again, starting in mid-1999 (when I, unfortunately, first started having extra income to invest) I would:

Save money for 10 years, put it towards a house and take the rest and buy stocks (berkshire, aapl, amzn, nflx, googl...doesn't really matter which ones almost) in April 2009.

You literally could have just saved money for a decade.

Plan B with hindsight and a crystal ball would be:
Save money from 1999 until Oct 2001 then invest in anything and sell it all in 2007.
Wait 2 years, buy it all back.


Market timing, historical market conditions/crashes, and having cash on hand all do matter.
Unfortunately no one was really talking about that in 1999-2000.

-Dreamer


There are plenty feelings of regret - or the usual "what if I only had done this" - made by investors in retrospect. This could be regrets from individual stock(s), the use of margin, diversity or lack of diversity in a portfolio, not buying something when the market was down and out, not selling at highs to rebalance, and on and on. The recency bias will - or should - last for the remainder of our lifetimes with regard to choices made.

Time in the market vs. timing the market certainly remains a path to success for a well diversified portfolio (domestic/international/fixed income) covering all industry sectors, growth, value, market cap, plus continued investment and reinvestment of dividends. The technology sector's fall of 80%+ from 2000-2002 took care of excess, as did the overall 54%+ drop in the 2007-2009. They also color recency bias. Having a portfolio with a core diversity will be able to weather the storm over the decades of investing we all engage in, but the lessons of the past help point this out - especially in the case of having too much of one's portfolio in any particular sector such as technology in the dot.com bust, or financials in the financial crisis.

To continue our quarterly look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the recent claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

I replied:

Your last post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 ($1408 3/5/18)
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 ($46 3/5/18)
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 ($90 3/5/18)
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 ($1103 3/5/18)
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 ($228 3/5/18)
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 ($49 3/5/18)
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 ($65 3/5/18)
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 ($108 3/5/18)
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 ($159 3/5/18)
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 ($263 3/5/18)
FB, of course was not public then, but it closed at $38.23 on 5/18/13 ($188 3/5/18)

Of course, throw in the dividends for those above that pay dividends to get the total return to see how right or wrong Warren Buffett was with regard to technology investing for the leaders.

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 ($205.50 3/5/18)


LifeForceDancer may or may not have been correct that on February 3rd, our stock market was the most overvalued stock market in history. So we all keep an eye on it.

Most are more than well aware of the tremendous growth taking place in software companies within the Cloud, but I won't highlight those players, but stick to the diverse collection of the big, well known players that dominate (includes the top 5 technology stocks in the S&P 500 + Netflix that when combined, these 6 companies have more free cash flow than the combined FCF of the bottom 250 stocks in the S&P 500 - yet they trade for the same multiple of price to FCF).

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018.

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37
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To continue our quarterly look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

At the time, I replied:

Your previous post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."


So, we keep the indefinitely up and running - or rather, alive - to see what happens.

A reminder of our look from June 1, 2018...

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018...

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37


Updated prices for the afternoon of March 21, 2019 to kick off spring.

Not too much change from last June, but here's the latest update for the start of spring '19....

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.
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To continue our look at some of the big names in technology...

LifeForceDancer made the claim on February 3rd, 2018: This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

At the time, I replied:

Your previous post on this board was on March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where you said:

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."


So, we keep the indefinitely up and running - or rather, alive - to see what happens. Be they basic investing principles or not.

A reminder of our look from June 1, 2018...

Updated prices for the morning of June 1, 2018...

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1637.14
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $55.90
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $99.45
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $1115.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $254.09
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $46.99
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $58.23
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $130.18
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $188.02
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $353.70
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $192.63

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 6/1/18 = $193.37

Updated prices for the afternoon of March 21, 2019 to kick off spring.

Not too much change from last June, but here's the latest update for the start of spring '19....

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26
INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*
MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*
GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13
NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*
ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*
QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*
CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95
AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*
NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87
FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

Updated prices for the morning of January 17, 2020 to kick off the roaring 20's. ;-)

Here's the latest update for the start of '20....(share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends)

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26

AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 2.6% since March of 2019.

INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*

INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 8.5% since March of 2019.

MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*

MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 37.8% since March of 2019.

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13

GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 18.2% since March of 2019.

NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*

NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 34.7% since March of 2019.

ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*

ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 1.8% since March of 2019.

QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*

QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 65.2% since March of 2019.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95

CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 9% since March of 2019.

AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*

AAPL 1/17/20 = $315.82
Up 61.8% since March of 2019.

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87

NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Down 10.4% since March of 2019.

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/23 on 3/16/08 ($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 33.1% since March of 2019.


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 13.2% since March of 2019.

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

In aggregate, the Gorillas are up 23.84% compared to Berkshire's 13.2% since March 21 of 2019 before accounting for dividends.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Updated prices for the morning of January 17, 2020 to kick off the roaring 20's. ;-)

Here's the latest update for the start of '20....(share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends)

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26

AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 2.6% since March of 2019.
Up 2705.8% since 3/16/08.

INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*

INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 8.5% since March of 2019.
Up 66.9% since 3/16/08.

MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*

MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 37.8% since March of 2019.
Up 648.2% since 3/16/08.

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13

GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 18.2% since March of 2019.
Up 595.7% since 3/16/08.

NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*

NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 34.7% since March of 2019.
Up 1396.9% since 3/16/08.

ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*

ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 1.8% since March of 2019.
Up 217% since 3/16/08.

QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*

QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 65.2% since March of 2019.
Up 209.5% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95

CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 9% since March of 2019.
Up 1211% since 3/16/08.

AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*

AAPL 1/17/20 = $315.82
Up 61.8% since March of 2019.
Up 1845.9% since 3/16/08.

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87

NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Down 10.4% since March of 2019.
Up 7082.1% since 3/16/08.

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 33.1% since March of 2019.
Up 478.4% since 5/18/12.


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 13.2% since March of 2019.
Up 172.7% since 3/16/08.

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 23.84% compared to Berkshire's 13.2% since March 21 of 2019 before accounting for dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 1496.12% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 172.7% gain since Lifeforce's post on March 16, 2008. That does not include all the dividends paid along the way for the Gorilla stocks that pay dividends (Apple, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Qualcomm).

BB
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Updated prices for the afternoon of June 9, 2020 to continue the roaring 20's. ;-)

Here's the latest update for June '20....(share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends)

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26

AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 40% since January 17, 2020
Up 3828.9% since 3/16/08

INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*

INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 6.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 78.1% since 3/16/08

MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*

MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 14.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 759.8% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13

GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Down 00.1% since January 17, 2020
Up 594.5% since 3/16/08

NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*

NVDA 6/9/20 = $360.79
NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 45.5% since January 17, 2020
Up 2078.6% since 3/16/08

ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*

ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Down 0.14% since January 17, 2020
Up 212.4% since 3/16/08

QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*

QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Down 5.87% since January 17, 2020
Up 191.3% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95

CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Down 4% since January 17, 2020
Up 1157% since 3/16/08

AAPL on that date closed at $16.23 on 3/16/08 ($159 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $195.09*

AAPL 6/9/20 = $344.35
AAPL 1/17/20 = $315.82
Up 9% since January 17, 2020
Up 2021.6% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87

NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 28.4% since January 17, 2020
Up 9123.5% since 3/16/08

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 7.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 524.6% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

BRDK 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Down 15.3% since January 17, 2020
Up 131.4% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.


On average, the Gorillas are up 1870.02% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 131.4% gain since Lifeforce's post on March 16, 2008. That does not include all the dividends paid along the way for the Gorilla stocks that pay dividends (Apple, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Qualcomm).

BB
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Happy Thanksgiving 2020 to my fellow Motley Fool and Gorilla Game investors!!!

Updated prices for the afternoon of November 25, 2020 to continue the roaring 20's. ;-)

Here's the latest update for November '20....(share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends)

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26

AMZN 11/25/20 = $3181.19
AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 70.4% since January 17, 2020
Up 4681.5% since 3/16/08

INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*

INTC 11/25/20 = $47.08
INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Down 20.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 32.5% since 3/16/08

MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*

MSFT 11/25/20 = $213.90
MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 29.0% since January 17, 2020
Up 865.6% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13

GOOGL 11/25/20 = $1768.85
GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 20.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 741.7% since 3/16/08

NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*

NVDA 11/25/20 = $529.09
NVDA 6/9/20 = $360.79
NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 113.4% since January 17, 2020
Up 3094.9% since 3/16/08

ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*

ORCL 11/25/20 = $57.43
ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 4.3% since January 17, 2020
Up 230.8% since 3/16/08

QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*

QCOM 11/25/20 = $145.41
QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 52.3% since January 17, 2020
Up 371.65% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95

CRM 11/25/20 = $254.12
CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 39.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 1730.8% since 3/16/08

AAPL on that date closed at $4.05 on 3/16/08 ($39.75 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $48.77*

AAPL 11/25/20 = $116.15 (Accounts for the 4 for 1 split)
AAPL 6/9/20 = $86.08
AAPL 1/17/20 = $78.95
Up 47.1% since January 17, 2020
Up 2767.9% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87

NFLX 11/25/20 = $483.45
NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 42.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 10164.3% since 3/16/08

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

FB 11/25/20 = $275.77
FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 24.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 621.3% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

BRKB 11/25/20 = $233.10
BRDK 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 0.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 174.5% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 2300.54% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 174.5% gain since Lifeforce's post on March 16, 2008. That does not include all the dividends paid along the way for the Gorilla stocks that pay dividends (Apple, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Qualcomm).

S&P 500 on 3/16/08 = 1288.14
S&P 500 on 1/17/20 = 3329.62
S&P 500 on 11/25/20 = 3627.29 [Up 8.9% since 1/17/20, Up 181.59% since 3/16/08]

BB

Full Disclosure: I do own individual shares in all of the stocks listed above (yes, including Berkshire Hathaway). I have been working for one of the technology companies listed above the past 2 1/2 years, and I have a daughter who works for another one of the technology companies listed above for the past 3 1/2 years.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Happy Easter and Passover 2021 to my fellow Motley Fool and Gorilla Game investors!!!

This post is a continuation of highlighting the post from March 16, 2008 when LifeForce (last having been seen registered as LifeForceDancr and or Elmer Fudd) wrote:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

And so it has. The Gorilla Game board updates are being kept by me here at the Fool to indefinitely remind us to stick to basic investing principles. In this case, the principle of investing in good companies for the long term utilizing buy and hold strategies.

Updated prices for the morning of April 5, 2021 to continue the reminder for the longer term.

Below shows the latest update for start of April '21. Share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends. Including the dividends would increase the total return investing for the following stocks: MSFT, AAPL, QCOM, NVDA, INTC, ORCL:

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08 ($1408 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1819.26

AMZN 4/5/21 = $3191.00
AMZN 11/25/20 = $3181.19
AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 70.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 4696.3% since 3/16/08

INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08 ($46 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.64*

INTC 4/5/21 = $65.47
INTC 11/25/20 = $47.08
INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 10.3% since January 17, 2020
Up 84.3% since 3/16/08

MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08 ($90 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $120.22*

MSFT 4/5/21 = $245.26
MSFT 11/25/20 = $213.90
MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 47.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 909.6% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08 ($1103 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $1236.13

GOOGL 4/5/21 = $2181.31
GOOGL 11/25/20 = $1768.85
GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 49.1% since January 17, 2020
Up 937.9% since 3/16/08

NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08 ($228 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $183.94*

NVDA 4/5/21 = $553.39
NVDA 11/25/20 = $529.09
NVDA 6/9/20 = $360.79
NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 123.2% since January 17, 2020
Up 3241.7% since 3/16/08

ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08 ($49 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $54.04*

ORCL 4/5/21 = $72.63
ORCL 11/25/20 = $57.43
ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 31.9% since January 17, 2020
Up 318.3% since 3/16/08

QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08 ($65 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $57.77*

QCOM 4/5/21 = $139.41
QCOM 11/25/20 = $145.41
QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 46.0% since January 17, 2020
Up 352.1% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08 ($108 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.95

CRM 4/5/21 = $221.17
CRM 11/25/20 = $254.12
CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 21.5% since January 17, 2020
Up 1493.4% since 3/16/08

AAPL on that date closed at $4.05 on 3/16/08 ($39.75 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $48.77*

AAPL 4/5/21 = $125.09
AAPL 11/25/20 = $116.15 (Accounts for the 4 for 1 split)
AAPL 6/9/20 = $86.08
AAPL 1/17/20 = $78.95
Up 58.4% since January 17, 2020
Up 2988.6% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08 ($263 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $377.87

NFLX 4/5/21 = $540.00
NFLX 11/25/20 = $483.45
NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 59.6% since January 17, 2020
Up 11136.4% since 3/16/08

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12($188 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $166.08

FB 4/5/21 = $305.34
FB 11/25/20 = $275.77
FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 38.0% since January 17, 2020
Up 698.6% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08 ($205.50 3/5/18) 3/21/19 = $204.43

BRKB 4/5/21 = $261.95
BRKB 11/25/20 = $233.10
BRDK 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 13.1% since January 17, 2020
Up 208.5% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 2441.56% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 208.5% gain since Lifeforce's post on March 16, 2008. That does not include all the dividends paid along the way for the Gorilla stocks that pay dividends (Apple, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Nvidia).

S&P 500 on 3/16/08 = 1288.14
S&P 500 on 1/17/20 = 3329.62
S&P 500 on 11/25/20 = 3627.29 [Up 8.9% since 1/17/20, Up 181.59% since 3/16/08]
s&P 500 on 4/5/21 = 4057.78 [Up since 21.8% 1/17/20, Up 215.0% since 3/16/08]

BRKB continues to underperform the S&P 500 and the combination of Gorillas (on share price alone)...
Up 13.1% since January 17, 2020
Up 208.5% since 3/16/08

BB

Full Disclosure: I do own individual shares in all of the stocks listed above (yes, including Berkshire Hathaway). I have been working for one of the technology companies listed above the past 3 years, and I have a daughter who works for another one of the technology companies listed above for the past 4 years.
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Happy Summer 2021 Everyone!

Since Q2 is in the books for most companies, below are the updated prices for the morning of July 10, 2021 to continue the roaring 20's. ;-)

A general reminder that this thread is simply a look at some of the important large technology companies that hold a dominant percentage in their respective markets, and how the stocks have done since March 16, 2008 when a poster rightfully challenged the premise of investing for the longer haul with such companies in what he thought was an overvalued market at the time.

The poster that challenged the premise:

LifeForceDancr (Elmer Fudd)

Aliases:
LifeForceDance (7/16/2015), HelpfuLFD (10/23/2005), lifeforcedancerr (8/1/2005), lifeforcedanceri (3/14/2005), Hacktester (11/27/2002), Transfigurement (3/25/2002), LifeForceDancer (2/18/2002), stvfox (8/20/2001)

LifeForceDancr challenged the premise when he said this on 3/16/2008:

This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

As well as this...in a previous post on this board from March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet Was Right where he said:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

And so it is - at least while I'm still posting. How has the height of Foolishness panned out since those posts for investors who stuck to basic investing principles - especially with regard to the technology adoption life cycle?

To be fair, markets did indeed experience a mega-drop with the S&P 500 dropping 56.8% during the financial crisis from Q4 of 2007 to Q1 of 2009. It was the second mega-drop of 50% or more (or reversion to the mean event) for the majority of current investors had experienced following the previous dot-com bust earlier in that decade. History guides us that investors will indeed see more of those in the future since, on average, such mega-drops come along every 18 years or so.

In spite of that, here we are today as investors still focused on the longer term and seeing how the dominant technology companies share prices performed (including the drops).

This latest update is for July 9, '21....(share price appreciation alone - not accounting for dividends paid on those stocks that pay dividends where the returns would be higher for those stocks):

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08

AMZN 7/9//21 = $3719.34
AMZN 11/25/20 = $3181.19
AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 5490.5% since 3/16/08

*INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08

INTC 7/9/21 = $55.99
INTC 11/25/20 = $47.08
INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 57.6% since 3/16/08

*MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08

MSFT 7/9/21 = $277.94
MSFT 11/25/20 = $213.90
MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 1154.8% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08

GOOGL 7/9/21 = $2510.37
GOOGL 11/25/20 = $1768.85
GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 1094.6% since 3/16/08

*NVDA on that date closed at $16.56 on 3/16/08

NVDA 7/9/21 = $802.01
NVDA 11/25/20 = $529.09
NVDA 6/9/20 = $360.79
NVDA 1/17/20 = $247.89
Up 4743.0% since 3/16/08

*ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08

ORCL 7/9/21 = $87.76
ORCL 11/25/20 = $57.43
ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 405.5% since 3/16/08

*QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08

QCOM 7/9/21 = $141.43
QCOM 11/25/20 = $145.41
QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 358.74% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08

CRM 7/9/21 = $245.06
CRM 11/25/20 = $254.12
CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 1665.6% since 3/16/08

*AAPL on that date closed at $4.05 on 3/16/08

AAPL 7/9/21 = $145.11
AAPL 11/25/20 = $116.15 (Accounts for the 4 for 1 split)
AAPL 6/9/20 = $86.08
AAPL 1/17/20 = $78.95
Up 3482.9% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08

NFLX 7/9/21 = $535.98
NFLX 11/25/20 = $483.45
NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 11279.6% since 3/16/08

FB closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12

FB 7/9/21 = $350.42
FB 11/25/20 = $275.77
FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 816.6% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08

BRKB 7/9/21 = $280.49
BRKB 11/25/20 = $233.10
BRDK 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 230.4% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 2777.22% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 230.4% gain since Lifeforcedancr's post on March 16, 2008. Again, that does not include all the dividends paid along the way for the stocks that pay dividends (Apple, Intel, Oracle, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Nvidia).

S&P 500 on 3/16/08 = 1288.14
S&P 500 on 1/17/20 = 3329.62
S&P 500 on 11/25/20 = 3627.29
S&P 500 on 7/9/21 = 4369.55
Up 239.2% since 3/16/08

BB

Full Disclosure: I do own individual shares in all of the stocks listed above (yes, including Berkshire Hathaway). I have been working for one of the technology companies listed above the past 3 years, and I have a daughter who works for another one of the technology companies listed above for the past 4 years.
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I was talking about market conditions in March of 2008. As you point out, I was right. The market subsequently crashed fifty percent.
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I was talking about market conditions in March of 2008. As you point out, I was right. The market subsequently crashed fifty percent.

My thoughts on market timing are well encapsulated here over at Bogleheads.org: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Taylor_Larimore%27s_market_t...

In spite of your thoughts in 2008, buy and holding the technology powerhouses has trumped market timing in the time period we are talking about from March 2008 to current.

BB
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I was not talking about how the market was going to perform in a thirteen year period like you imply; I was talking about how the market was likely to perform in the next six to twelve months. In that context, I was right as you pointed out.
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I was not talking about how the market was going to perform in a thirteen year period like you imply; I was talking about how the market was likely to perform in the next six to twelve months. In that context, I was right as you pointed out.

So you don't consider that you were inaccurate when you said this about the longer term (of which the past 13 years qualify and the percentage gains shown in prior posts point out)...

"To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles."

Point being, longer term investing is exactly one of the stalwarts of successful investing - especially when we are talking about technology adoption life cycles and circling the investment wagons around the winners within their respective spaces.

Have you even read any of Moore's books? Serious question.

https://www.amazon.com/Geoffrey-A.-Moore/e/B000APBO2I%3Fref=...

BB
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I am a very bullish investor and invest mainly in technology. On a board like this, I am usually talking about the next year or so. In the aftermath of 2008, the markets eventually fell fifty percent. I was eminently right. I know Moore's theories, but like ninety percent of investors, I have not read his books.
Am I bullish for five years from now? Yes.
Am I bullish on the next six months. Yes and no. I believe we will probably have a correction before the end of the year. In fact, I hope that is the case so we can all invest at lower levels on great stocks. Here is my thinking on Google: https://youtu.be/a6qZ2V97fW0
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Furthermore, after the market fell significantly, I began investing again in 20010-2011, and I made a hundred percent more money than if I just stayed nonstop in the market. I will never just stand by and watch my account go to zero.

You have to know when to hold them and when to fold them. You also need to know when to buy back in. So I am holding them for now, but will fold if the likes of 2008 portends. I will get back in when a cup with a handle unfolds,as it virtually always does...
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Happy New Year 2022 Everyone!

Since Q4 is in the books for most companies, below are the updated prices for the morning of January 2, 2022 to continue the roaring 20's. ;-)

Not too much new since the last post. Facebook has changed their name to META Platforms, Inc., Nvidia had a stock split, Microsoft has flexed its muscle, Salesforce acquired Slack, Oracle announced their intent to purchase Cerner, and the S&P 500 made a good run for the year.

A general reminder that this thread is simply a look at some of the important large technology companies that hold a dominant percentage in their respective markets (with amazing DCFs), and how the stocks have done since March 16, 2008 when a poster rightfully challenged the premise of investing for the longer haul with such companies in what he thought was an overvalued market at the time.

The poster that challenged the premise and has since joined in with some discussion about market timing and his/her version of thoughts on technology companies that may or may not be involved in the technology adoption life cycle as we know from the Moore books on this board:

LifeForceDancr (Elmer Fudd)

Aliases:
LifeForceDance (7/16/2015), HelpfuLFD (10/23/2005), lifeforcedancerr (8/1/2005), lifeforcedanceri (3/14/2005), Hacktester (11/27/2002), Transfigurement (3/25/2002), LifeForceDancer (2/18/2002), stvfox (8/20/2001)

LifeForceDancr challenged the premise when he said this on 3/16/2008:

This is the most overvalued stock market in history. Stocks around the world began their crash today. Crickets? Just when this board starts to make a noise is when the market will get squashed again.

As well as this...in a previous post on this board from March 16, 2008 entitled Warren Buffet was Right where he said:

To think that somehow the current environment is going to pan out differently in the long run is the height of foolishness. This board should be kept at the Fool indefinitely to remind us to stick to basic investing principles.

And so it is - at least while I'm still posting. How has the height of Foolishness panned out since those posts for investors who stuck to basic investing principles - especially with regard to the technology adoption life cycle - regarding long term buy and hold? I will add the caveat that Buffett is not keen on timing the market. One of his famous quotes from his 1998 shareholder letter says “Our favourite holding period is forever.”

You can read more quotes from Buffett and thoughts on market timing from an article by Larry Swedroe here:

https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/panic-and-sell-now-what/

To be fair, markets did indeed experience a mega-drop with the S&P 500 dropping 56.8% during the financial crisis from Q4 of 2007 to Q1 of 2009. It was the second mega-drop of 50% or more (or reversion to the mean event) for the majority of current investors had experienced following the previous dot-com bust earlier in that decade. History guides us that investors will indeed see more of those in the future since, on average, such mega-drops come along every 18 years or so. They are a feature of the stock market.

In spite of that, here we are today as investors still focused on the longer term and seeing how the dominant technology companies and their share prices have performed (including the drops). Some of the companies are doing better than others these days, but in aggregate the basket still remains a viable long term buy and hold up to this point as does their dominance and ability to flex their muscle and expand into other areas/markets.

This latest update is for January 2, 2022:

AMZN on that date closed at $66.53 on 3/16/08

AMZN 1/2/22 = $3343.33
AMZN 7/9//21 = $3719.34
AMZN 11/25/20 = $3181.19
AMZN 6/9/20 = $2613.90
AMZN 1/17/20 = $1866.74
Up 4,925.3% since 3/16/08

*INTC on that date closed at $35.52 on 3/16/08

INTC 1/2/22 = $51.59
INTC 7/9/21 = $55.99
INTC 11/25/20 = $47.08
INTC 6/9/20 = $63.27
INTC 1/17/20 = $59.31
Up 45.2% since 3/16/08

*MSFT on that date closed at $22.15 on 3/16/08

MSFT 1/2/22 = $336.79
MSFT 7/9/21 = $277.94
MSFT 11/25/20 = $213.90
MSFT 6/9/20 = $190.46
MSFT 1/17/20 = $165.74
Up 1,420.5% since 3/16/08

GOOGL on that date closed at $210.15 on 3/16/08

GOOGL 1/2/22 = $2900.00
GOOGL 7/9/21 = $2510.37
GOOGL 11/25/20 = $1768.85
GOOGL 6/9/20 = $1459.53
GOOGL 1/17/20 = $1462.04
Up 1,279.9% since 3/16/08

*NVDA on that date closed at $4.21 on 3/16/08

NVDA 1/2/22 = $294.28
NVDA 7/9/21 = $200.44
NVDA 11/25/20 = $129.43
NVDA 6/9/20 = $90.33
NVDA 1/17/20 = $62.16
Up 6,890% since 3/16/08

*ORCL on that date closed at $17.36 on 3/16/08

ORCL 1/2/22 = $87.38
ORCL 7/9/21 = $87.76
ORCL 11/25/20 = $57.43
ORCL 6/9/20 = $54.24
ORCL 1/17/20 = $55.04
Up 403.3% since 3/16/08

*QCOM on that date closed at $30.83 on 3/16/08

QCOM 1/2/22 = $182.76
QCOM 11/25/20 = $145.41
QCOM 6/9/20 = $89.83
QCOM 1/17/20 = $95.44
Up 492.8% since 3/16/08.

CRM on that date closed at $13.88 on 3/16/08

CRM 1/2/22 = $254.15
CRM 7/9/21 = $245.06
CRM 11/25/20 = $254.12
CRM 6/9/20 = $174.55
CRM 1/17/20 = $181.98
Up 1,731% since 3/16/08

*AAPL on that date closed at $4.05 on 3/16/08

AAPL 1/2/22 = $177.72
AAPL 7/9/21 = $145.11
AAPL 11/25/20 = $116.15 (Accounts for the 4 for 1 split)
AAPL 6/9/20 = $86.08
AAPL 1/17/20 = $78.95
Up 4,288.1% since 3/16/08

NFLX on that date closed at $4.71 on 3/16/08

NFLX 1/2/22 = $604.50
NFLX 7/9/21 = $535.98
NFLX 11/25/20 = $483.45
NFLX 6/9/20 = $434.43
NFLX 1/17/20 = $338.28
Up 12,734.4% since 3/16/08

FB (META) closed at $38.23 on 5/18/12

FB 1/2/22 = $337.46
FB 7/9/21 = $350.42
FB 11/25/20 = $275.77
FB 6/9/20 = $238.82
FB 1/17/20 = $221.16
Up 782.7% since 5/18/12


BRKB on that date closed at $84.90 on 3/16/08

BRKB 1/2/22 = $299.22
BRKB 7/9/21 = $280.49
BRKB 11/25/20 = $233.10
BRDB 6/9/20 = $196.05
BRKB 1/17/20 = $231.58
Up 252.4% since 3/16/08

*Added an asterisk to denote the companies paying dividends.

On average, the Gorillas are up 3,181.2% on share price alone compared to Berkshire's 252.4% gain since Lifeforcedancr's post on March 16, 2008 and the S&P 500's 270% advance since 3/16/08.

S&P 500 on 3/16/08 = 1288.14
S&P 500 on 1/17/20 = 3329.62
S&P 500 on 11/25/20 = 3627.29
S&P 500 on 7/9/21 = 4369.55
S&P 500 on 1/2/22 = 4766.18
Up 270% since 3/16/08

BB

Full Disclosure: I do own individual shares in all of the stocks listed above (yes, including Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B). I have been working for one of the technology companies listed above the past 4 years, and I have a daughter who works for another one of the technology companies listed above for the past 5 years.
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Why focused on just these same companies?
Google, Amazon, Apple...pretty easy for them to make anyone look like a genius in hindsight.

What about CSCO since 2000?
INTC is 45% over 13-14 years? Not a very good CAGR.

Maybe this is just a thing you have with the lifeforce poster. If so, ok.

I find parallels to GG from early 2000 to today's Saul board from about Nov 2021.
Will it bounce back quickly or will it be a multi-year drag down in market? Who knows.

I find Saul board stocks can be GG stocks, but not always exactly.
Both focused on hyper-growth/tech.
GG tends to be more long-term.
Saul stocks tend to be "invest only while growth at x level and exit once growth slows". Feels/sounds a bit like Tornado or S-curve or whatever term someone wants to use.

GG seems to focus more on dominance in a market/category vs purely focused on growth over x rate.

Timing does matter, imo.
If you came into investing in 2001/2002 you did better, more quickly, than someone piling into the market initially at early 2000.

Same with 2007/8 vs mid-2009.

I find another parallel with the always-up-bro / crypto / Gamestop / Tesla / ARKK crowd of 2000, that jumped in after March 2000 and only ever saw that btd works each and every time.

Monetary policy different each period as well; 2000 vs 2008 vs Dec 2018 vs today.

Either way, feels like more capitulation still to come, and that time would present a great buying oppty for Gorillas or Saul stocks, etc...

Dreamer
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Why focused on just these same companies?

Why?

Because they are known leaders in their segments with tremendous earnings and revenues that came from TALCs I have followed over the years.

Have you read The Gorilla Game book by Geoffrey Moore?

Google, Amazon, Apple...pretty easy for them to make anyone look like a genius in hindsight.

Yes, but they and the games they were in were also discussed throughout on Gorilla Game message forums on the internet - including here at the Fool - over the past two decades+.

What about CSCO since 2000?
INTC is 45% over 13-14 years? Not a very good CAGR.


No argument there regarding returns for those two since the early 2000's, but the premise of the "game" was with the industry leaders who emerged and won their segments due to the technology adoption life cycle, patents and the spoils that come with that make good long term investments. I will say that both Cisco and Intel were well discussed on this message board in the 90's along with many others. The returns prior to 2000 were rather eye opening for both. If you were not invested in Cisco in 1990-91, you were not clued into what was going on at all. Cisco was the darling investment you had to buy in 1990, 1991, 1992, etc... . Today, it is a dividend stock. ;-) Obviously Intel is much older and the PC/data center/smart phone/automotive games have covered decades for Intel. Personally, I am very interested with current management and the move to increase manufacturing capacity here in the US for their chips.

Maybe this is just a thing you have with the lifeforce poster. If so, ok.

Well, this particular board died with the dot-com bust and subsequent 9/11 attacks and fell off a cliff after the GFC. The Fool's decision to move to a paid subscription model where most of the content takes place was the death knell of many of these forum discussions. Nobody wanted to talk too much about technology investing for a good decade or more. I have no idea where all of the posters that used to participate on this board in the 1990's ended up, but I just rekindled a little bit of banter with LifeForce (Elmer Fudd and all of his previous alias names) from his post during the GFC regarding valuations and Berkshire Hathaway being the better choice at the time. So I have simply pointed out that in spite of his post regarding valuations at the time of the dominate technology leaders and emerging leaders, the returns have been far better in aggregate which fits with the GG book and why investing in them is a worthwhile longer term endeavor if and when one is following a TALC.

I find parallels to GG from early 2000 to today's Saul board from about Nov 2021.
Will it bounce back quickly or will it be a multi-year drag down in market? Who knows.

I find Saul board stocks can be GG stocks, but not always exactly.
Both focused on hyper-growth/tech.


Again, have you read The Gorilla Game and studied the technology adoption life cycle? I've only skimmed Saul's board a few times and didn't see anything that was akin to the TALC and Gorilla Game investing outside of two or three stocks that I follow closely and are in current respective games.

GG tends to be more long-term.

Yup. The TALC can be a very, very long time frame from start to finish. PC. Networking. OS software. Back office software. Smart Phone. Data Center. CRM. Cloud. Social. Cyber Security. And many more. Good grief, Intel went public in 1971.

Saul stocks tend to be "invest only while growth at x level and exit once growth slows". Feels/sounds a bit like Tornado or S-curve or whatever term someone wants to use.

Yes, it seems like a growth only focused board with everyone bailing out once the hyper-growth phase moves on which is a different game entirely than the technology adoption life cycle investing game where one migrates the investment money into the winner(s) of the game from the basket that were in the TALC. Royalty games vs. Gorilla Games are key games to uncover and realize. Best example of a royalty game was Dell Computer who was selling the equipment that contained technology made by Intel and Microsoft. Dell was a great royalty game investment for a period of time, but the longer term returns of Intel and Microsoft due to the technology hardware and software was the investor's focus. Again, the books that Moore wrote highlight everything in excellent detail and I highly suggest reading them if you have the chance.

GG seems to focus more on dominance in a market/category vs purely focused on growth over x rate.

Yes. Growth could easily come from anywhere: booze, fast food, weed, coffee, technology, drugs, biotech and on and on. GG is solely focused on a disruptive technology and the technology adoption life cycle surrounding it. Certainly there are a few stocks I have seen on Saul's board in various games that do interest me regarding their specific TALCs (cloud, cyber security, software). However, I knew about them and the games they were in before seeing them appear on Saul's board. Beyond that, I don't want to comment as I am not a regular reader of that board.

Timing does matter, imo. If you came into investing in 2001/2002 you did better, more quickly, than someone piling into the market initially at early 2000.

Yes, timing is a factor. Most that participated on this board in the past were investing in games well before 2001/2002. Many of us for at least a decade or more at that point. We were investing in the technology adoption life cycles of networking, personal computing, and even smart phone categories (Qualcomm was a huge favorite due to the patents and technology) and the very early stage preface to streaming technology. Regardless, as I said above, the combination of the dot-com bust, 9/11, GFC and the Fool's switch to paid message forums ended the Fool board's traffic compared to other message boards on the internet that focus on technology investing. Many of those continued to thrive though it all. However, as you mention, timing was key. We were all way too early on Amazon and Qualcomm. ;-)

Same with 2007/8 vs mid-2009.

Funny thing happened though with some of today's now known Gorillas and the games they were in during that time frame. It was an excellent time to be following and investing in games that involved Apple, Google, Amazon, Netflix and a few others. Not dismissing the subject of timing, but each generation of investors will have opportunities for technology adoption life cycles and gorillas to emerge. You missed IBM, Intel, Cisco, Oracle, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Meta, Qualcomm, Salesforce? There will be others. They are few and far between for the TALCs (especially the huge ones like cloud, smart phone, PC), but the strategy of finding the TALCs and playing the basket until a leader emerges who goes on to win the lion's share of the spoils continues to this day.

I find another parallel with the always-up-bro / crypto / Gamestop / Tesla / ARKK crowd of 2000, that jumped in after March 2000 and only ever saw that btd works each and every time.

Sorry to say, but I would color those as different compared to a TALC game. As I said above, disruptive technology that is strong enough to warrant a huge trend change - when it comes along - allows the TALC to happen regardless of where we are in the business cycle and what the FED is doing with monetary policy.

Monetary policy different each period as well; 2000 vs 2008 vs Dec 2018 vs today.

I would venture to say that the technology adoption life cycle surrounding disruptive technologies doesn't really clue into the FED and monetary policy. PC's, smart phones, back office software, cloud computing, data center, etc.. barreled through their TALC's no matter what was going on with the FED and the business cycle. Perhaps you can provide data that disputes that regarding venture capital and tight money conditions, but when a problem requires a solution and that solution comes along - it's a powerful move no matter what the monetary policy is at the time.

Either way, feels like more capitulation still to come, and that time would present a great buying oppty for Gorillas or Saul stocks, etc...

Ah...market timing!

Now you are moving into territory, as did LifeForce before you, that gets beyond the discussion of the technology adoption life cycle, long term holding of Gorillas and starts talking about PE's/Valuations and metrics with regard to interest rates, FED policy, the business cycle, etc... . The longer term technology investor is more interested in the actual disruptive technology and the returns the winner of each category will amass over the entire life cycle of the technology.

If you can buy a moat protected gorilla at 15-16X or 17X compared to over 20X such as we saw last year and earlier this year, it might be a compelling buy for new investors compared to the higher multiples. Those that have been in them for years and years and already own them are simply invested in these good companies for the multi-decade returns they provide, and most likely just hold them knowing that the multiple as well as price fluctuates while the longer term trend remains worth holding. However, see the results of the returns in previous posts of mine in spite of LifeForce raising valuation concerns back during the GFC.

Multiples aside, just look at the revenues and earnings reported this week of Meta, Alphabet, Microsoft, Qualcomm, Apple, Amazon, etc... . Also look at Cisco, Intel, Salesforce, Nvidia. There is a reason in the cap weighted index funds that these large technology companies dominate and are in the top 45-50 of all US companies in the index funds.

BB
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