Hi folks..............Whew tough going these days. It's always the one that got away that haunts us isn't it.Been pretty busy with the day job lately, but its all good.I used to think the old saying that we move our money to more conservative investments as we age was only........ sorta true.Well at 52 I am already feeling like that aint such a bad idea. Been about 50% in fixed income because I was worried about losing capital. Not so much worried about the Market running away from me. Although it has done a good job of that for the last few months. Few trades......... mostly small gains........ one pretty decent one and several small losses. Sorta meandering around while others have ridden this nice rally northward. Sweet for them indeed. I get to take comfort in the fact that my Dad never sells anything so this has all been good for him. Not sure about others, but it is comforting to have my Dad live off of $5,000 of pension from the Power Company, Social Security and dividends mainly from Southern Company and GE. $5,000 a month is pretty doggone decent. Wonder how good that will seem for me in say......................... 13 years?I have sort of relived all of the discussion about having money in fixed income and dividends (some of which were cut) and how inflation would wreck havoc on them. Hmmmmmmmmmmmm true or not?Next year (January 2010) we Woolys get a raise. The daughter goes off the gravy train with her degree in Education. Really she did herself pretty good and we totaled up her expenses (that we paid) for the 4 1/2 years. Just over $53,000. Good? Bad? I don't know. It just "Was".Now we get about $1,000 a month to invest somewhere else. Steady, monthly, with a fair degree of saftey built in. We have decided on Utilites. Southern Company and Duke Energy are the choices. The nice thing about these Boards is we get to share our own experiences. Sure, they are somewhat unique, but also we all share common threads that help us relate.This time next summer, we will have finished saving for the youngest boy's education. He starts his sophomore year in College here in just under a month. So we get to add another $500 a month in July 2010.$1,500 a month for 12-13 years will be a tiddy sum when we reach 65. That will be about a $250,000 of utility stocks.. one paying 6% and the other paying over 5%. Risky?............ Not too risky I don't think.That will generate about $1500 a month in dividend incomeSocial Security for us Woolys will be around $2500 a month in incomeThe Rest of what we should have in Hospital Pension, Deferred Compensation, 403b and IRA will be around $5,000 a month at 4% rate of return. Total around $9,000 a month. Good? Bad?...... Just is what it will be. Inflation? Who the Heck knows? Will I need to work until I am 67 or even 70? Well, I sure hope not, but Healthcare may be the bugaboo that lassos us all.I still am a firm beliver in living below my means, but somehow our country just does not agree with me. Politics to me means Bipartisan rhetoric. I just mean our Government has yet to buy into the idea that we all can do just fine with a little less. I watched 2 of my Medicaid patients today buy lottery tickets at our little Food Mart near our house. I can't say I was happy, but I also can't say I was surprised.As a newlywed struggling though Grad School, we ate Baloney sandwiches. We ate Cereal. We went to the Dollar Movie on Thursday if we went at all. Granted, we didn't have the lottery then, but somehow I doubt I would have been spending my Baloney money on a slip of paper.But maybe we reap what we sow. We are now moving into our 3rd Generation of Handouts. What is so odd is that each and every one of us gets the opportunity each day to help out those really in need, and many of us do just that. Our conscience just tells us to do so. Problem now is we have way too many looking for a handout. Conversly we have let the Financial Macro Picture of How we Work with money at the Federal level (Not so much the State) be related to special interest groups (Banks, Brokerage Houses, etc) that even the imbalance in how we tax, distribute and use our money is a mockery of equity and prudence. Bail out banks and a few selected groups of people and fail 7 million folks by letting their jobs evaporate. Sad........ really sad...........New Baseline for Wooly has been to abandon Growth Stocks and Biotech except for a trade here and there. Gold? Wish I could, but I can't. Google?....... never in my lifetime. Short........... well for this next week or so........... TZA $17.38..... Long Utilites and Fixed income. If the Market says otherwise, it will be what it is for that portion of our dollars............... As we get older it gets to be less and less...........% wise at least.....8^)Everyone keep smilin'Wooly.............. who always enjoys it when someone else does good for themselves............. Life aint really a competition.......
Hi Wooly,Owned and reinvested in SO since 1973; no regrets...rk
Here's a stock tip. The bull market ended in 2000. We are experiencing the same kind of turmoil we experienced in the mid seventies. That bull market ended in the late 60's. I don't have the chart in front of me so let's say 1969. The next bull really did not see the 1969 high until 1982. That's about 13 years. If my prognostications are even a little close, the prudent investment stratagy is the same. Remember A.L williams? Buy term and invest the difference. "Now let me show you about dollar cost averaging." These were the stratagies for the seventies and even through the eighties. You are in an outstanding position. Set it up and buy! Don't over think it. If you are following this board you are using a way too course an instrument for stock picking or market timing. CheersQazulight (over 500 bucks a month in the 401k. And soon to step it up. )
Wooly,With the time horizon you are discribing, for the equity portin of your allocation, you might want to look at the contents of nearly any of the portfolios I've periodicly posted. Most of the stocks have been chosen based on dividend yield, strength in their industry, financial strenth, etc. and should be fine over the long run. While I have sold much of my portfolio at this point, it's for tactical reasons and I look forward to buying it all back again before the end of the year.LTBAH is NOT dead (just unpopular).Jeff
my account and net worth are at and all time highThe house is about 50k off the high2 yrs left on the morgValue wise on the house still ahead by not selling If i had sold and rented for 3 yrs 1k per month for 3 yrs 36k5% realtor fee to sell plus moving expenses 20kPaid dow peinciple almost 30k in the last yrsMakes staying put look good47 yrs old
Now we get about $1,000 a month to invest somewhere else. Steady, monthly, with a fair degree of saftey built in. We have decided on Utilites. Southern Company and Duke Energy are the choices. Both seem like good ideas. Let me share a DRIP tale.About 10 years ago, I started a small account at a brokerage called Buy&Hold.com When I started the account, I thought, just pick a few ideas but add money to each idea periodically. It started off right, I started $250 positions in four unrelated industries-- FNM (Mortgages), ERIC (Telecom), WOR (Steel) and PBI (Business Services). The start was good, the follow through was terrible. WOR, and maybe FNM, might have each gotten a follow up investment. Hohum got side-tracked by the Internet bubble.I added a small cash infusion annually, but the picks started meandering away from the investment plan (non-dividend ideas like Jet Blue or Digi Intl, etc ). Last year was the first year I made multiple cash infusions to the account (Great timing- NOT).A few months ago, I started a SO position in my DRIP account.Not just a good defensive pick, it provides another benefit- balance. It wasn't consciously in my thinking, but somehow I picked a high yield stock when I opted for a new sector- PVX (Canroy), RWT (Jumbo mortgages), FRO (tankers). It wasn't just the yield, those companies were executing well when I initially invested in them. When a stock/sector is performing well, it masks the risk. Adding high-yield idea on top of another high-yield idea increases one's risk profile. I just didn't see it at the time. SO is not just sector diversity and a defensive play. The lower yield means lower risk, which provides stability and balance. I'm not there yet, but I'm beginning to realize the DRIP account should be about consistency and dividend safety. So ideas like SO might reduce the major swingsthat I've seen. BTW, Don't SO and DUK have some overlap in geographic area? ED, AEP, IDA are Utes that might provide more geographic diversity. Hohum
a number of parallels I am 53 ... not telling my wife's age even on an anonymous forum...our younger daughter finished college in 2007 at which time we started saving in earnest above and beyond our 401K equivalent (403B?) and IRA my wife has 14 years toward a modest pension which I hardly noticed when stocks were flying high - now it's a meaningful part of our plans -unless the Commonwealth of Va goes bust along with everyone else.presently piling money into savings, but the interest rate was about 4% when I started two years ago and now its 1.75%...with inflation looming, I will ultimately be forced to do something....in law school in the late 70's my wife invented 'shipwreck' - a combination of beans, rice, cheap ground beef and spices with which she could create about 20,000 calories for under five dollarsI put some of my IRA into DUK and D last fall, and am charting them for some non-IRA money right nowmay have some money in munis instead of going into utilities as heavy as you have - for whatever that is worth - plus a little bit of pg, kft and boring dividend stuff alongside the utilitieshoping that the Nags Head cottage still has some value in a few years -I feel like Vizzini if I try to think about it - will inflation increase the value of the cottage after which rates will rise after which the value of the cottage will drop again after which the 4.5% mortgage will have greater value...????I put 'enjoy working till I die' on my bio here at tmf after the first crash in 2000 - hoping to do better than that but girding myself for the possibility that I will have to work past 65 or 70...a lot of parallels on the economic front
Hohum,Boy your tale is not unlike many of us. Get started, get distracted, things kind of just wander. A lot less of that nowadays.BTW, Don't SO and DUK have some overlap in geographic area? ED, AEP, IDA are Utes that might provide more geographic diversity.Not a Bad Idea at all. I have lived with Southern Company because of my Dad's investing so have heard about it for many years. Same with GE. Which really doesn't fit my comfort level. We live in NC so we get quite a bit of news about Duke Energy and that also has increased my comfort level. Will look at those you suggested. Sure would help with any geographic changes, but not sure I have to worry about a "Dust Bowl" affect these days. Who knows right? 8^)Hey meant to ask you about that OCNF. Nice pop on Monday huh? Now if it will just form a nice pennant I am going to be all over that.I still say the best thing I have done is get the education I did and Max out my 403b, 457b and IRA's each year. That and each month pay an extra $395 on my mortgage. Oh yeah, better mention Mrs Wooly too! 8^)Take care bud........... and thanks for the suggestions.......
"We" call that Zaterains RedBeans & Rice now ... [excellent dish and served up one pan style at least once a week]in law school in the late 70's my wife invented 'shipwreck' - a combination of beans, rice, cheap ground beef and spices with which she could create about 20,000 calories for under five dollarsperchance did DW ever patten the dish? [I know a lawyer - LOL - that enjoys a good fight]*** Good [cheap] eats ***
A few months ago, I started a SO position in my DRIP account.May I suggest PNY, WTR & WRE?They, along with ED & SO, are in my core protfolio.Also, if you believe the past is any indication of the future you'll want to checkout dfish's U.S. Dividend Champions:http://dripinvesting.org/tools/tools.asp
"We" call that Zaterains RedBeans & Rice now ... [excellent dish and served up one pan style at least once a week]in law school in the late 70's my wife invented 'shipwreck' - a combination of beans, rice, cheap ground beef and spices with which she could create about 20,000 calories for under five dollarsperchance did DW ever patten the dish? [I know a lawyer - LOL - that enjoys a good fight]*** Good [cheap] eats *** During my "between marriage" phase in the late '70s, I used to add a can of tomatoes, yum. The leftovers were even better the next day. ****not signed****
One other point about some utilities- their side businesses.SO also offers communication services -wireless, cellular, Internet, etc. I forgot to mention one other utility - Otter Tail (OTTR). Originally, an electric company but they also have several side businesses, including diagnostic medical imaging services.I don't know enough about electric utilities or medical imaging equipment, but then I think about it a little, and GE sells both equipment for both utilities and medical imaging, so perhaps it isn't such a stretch.Since you're a Doc, you might have a better understanding of whetherthat's a sustainable side business for OTTR. FWIW, OTTRhas a history.The company is over 100 years old so they must have some idea on whatthey are doing.Hey meant to ask you about that OCNF. Nice pop on Monday huh? Now if it will just form a nice pennant I am going to be all over that. OCNF had two recent hiccups. One of their vessel acquisition deals did not get completed, and a charterer reneged on payments. Just a reminder that the Dry bulk sector has that "wild west" risk element, and these are still uncertain times. However, OCNF managed to secure follow-on charters for two more vessels (one of those was the vessel involved in the reneged charter). That takes them to 92% fleet coverage for 2009, and increased coverage in 2010. I don't expect a Dry bulk meltdown similar to last Fall, but there's nothing like being prepared.The Shanghai exchange took a nasty tumble (I guess that's now yesterday's news. Personally, I think the Shanghai traders got spooked by word of RaptorD's exit of the commodity market ;) ), so there's always surprises.Take care,Hohum
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