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Here is my response to a bullish Seekking Alpha writer http://seekingalpha.com/article/1311801-sodastream-continues...


SodaStream (SODA) refill days are trending down, based on company reports. Thus, usage frequency is waning.

In 2012, CO2 cartridges were refilled every 102 days, vs. 82 days in 2011 and 69 days in 2010. That's a 33% decline in just two years.

If SODA enjoys a Gillette-type "razor blade" revenue model, refill days will remain steady or increase.

My calculations assume:

> Data from 2012 20-F
> 2-year useful life for soda makers.
> Soda maker sales lag refills by one year, to allow time for a soda maker to wind through the supply chain, to home carbonator from manufacturer.

Bottom line: Usage frequency as measured by CO2 refills is declining, which implies SODA sells a fad product. That, or consumers are using their soda makers but buying refills elsewhere.

Here's how I calculate refill days:

= 16.543 million CO2 refills (2012)/(2010 units sold: 1.934 million + 2011 units sold: 2.979 million units)
= 16.543/4.632 million
= 3.57x

Last, divide 365 days by 3.57x = 102 refill days in 2012.


hewitt
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