Here is the latest update that I have.

Timeframes might be a little different from
the original post, but I added how
the ratio method would have worked.

The "timing" column represents the
original thought of this thread; the
ratio method refers to something I
developed a while back.
http://boards.fool.com/2-ratios-30565283.aspx
MI post 241906


Both the timing and ratio methods have had
their glory days.

While timing might win out overall, 
ratio had minimized the worst periods.
And I use the ratio method for timing
in the ETF sector strategies- easier to
code.


Each line shows approx. a 50 month return.

	B&H	Timing	Ratio
3/1/17	52%	56%	52%
3/1/13	90%	131%	71%
1/2/09	-30%	-18%	9%
11/1/04	-18%	27%	25%
9/1/00	124%	103%	124%
7/1/96	54%	48%	54%
5/1/92	60%	54%	52%
3/1/88	58%	49%	58%
1/3/84	54%	78%	58%
11/1/79	27%	38%	14%
9/2/75	-12%	15%	2%
7/1/71	7%	14%	23%
5/1/67	34%	54%	24%
3/1/63	20%	37%	20%
1/2/59	27%	35%	31%
1/3/56	Start

		B&H	Timing	Ratio
SEP-00 to now	66%	273%	254%
1956 to Sep-00	3178%	6167%	3559%
all	        5338%	23258%	12856%