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No. of Recommendations: 5
Here's the data for the 90/10 SPY/CASH portfolio:
...
2016 ... $458,093 [EOY balance] ... Total withdrawls (2000 thru 2016): $846,415


I have a complex spreadsheet which ends on Jan 2017. It does monthly computations.
Our figures essentially agree. Using 90% S&P 500 / 10% 1Yr T-bill, I get:
$450,117 EOY 2016 balance, and $827,940 total withdrawals. Avg w/d $4,039/mo.

How about that! PortfolioVisualizer agrees. Final Balance $408,686. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&a...
(BTW, to post a PV link, you have to copy/paste the "Link" button from the Portfolio Analysis Results line.)

This is why a variable withdrawal plan is needed.

With the standard Guyton-Kilnger parameters, with 4% target W/D rate:
EOY 2016: $1,000,901 and $531,742 total withdrawals. Avg w/d $2,594/mo.

Guyton-Kilnger claims that the target withdrawal rate can be higher than 4%, because of the guardrail rules.
With 5% target W/D rate:
EOY 2016: $840,605 and $611,013 total withdrawals. Avg w/d $2,981/mo.

It is clear that in the 2000-2017 period, that standard 4% SWR is much too high.

======================================
To add another twist -- timing.
Go to cash (1Yr T-bill) when the S&P 500 drops below its 10 month simple moving average (SMA), switch back to S&P500 when the price rises above the SMA. Still G-K with 5% target.

EOY 2016: $1,804,840.
Same $611,013 total withdrawals. Avg w/d $2,981/mo.

Not using G-K, just standard 4% SWR, but with timing:
EOY 2016: $1,460,767
Same $827,940 total withdrawals. Avg w/d $4,039/mo.


Timing has no effect most of the time. But when there is a bad bear market -- and in 2000-2017 there were TWO bear markets -- timing saves your butt.

Timing really is a lifesaver when you are in the withdrawal phase, because what kills your portfolio is when you withdraw money when the market is way down.
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