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No. of Recommendations: 32
Hey All,

I have nothing but respect for the investors on this board and root for all to make money.

I'll just say this - we all have our defining experiences. Recently the legendary Fool and brilliant writer, Morgan Housel wrote a very compelling piece about a tragedy that greatly affected his life.

https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-three-sides-of-ri...

This tragedy made him particularly risk averse. And he has said he optimizes his portfolio for peace of mind.

For me, I once got suckered on a franchise deal. So I'm hyper-sensitive to what I believe to be hype, over-promising. I do NOT believe Livongo is a fraud. But I see things in the language I just don't feel comfortable with. And in the narrative it is too easy to see the hole in the Death Star that brings the whole thing down. ONE large client comes out and says it didn't work to drive down costs so they dropped the service - and the stock collapses. And on top of that I don't believe in behavior modification working at scale, so for me it's just too easy to see the downside.

Bottom line is there are companies like CrowdStrike, Fastly, Okta that indisputably work. Our top tech guys and orgs like Gartner vouch for them. I know some here cite peer-reviewed studies that claim Livongo is lowering costs/improving health. I just think the possibility of these being skewed or the foundations of the studies being questionable are higher than in non healthcare tech.

Livongo is up against all the forces aligning against human health - junk food, fear inducement, income inequality, marital stresses, etc. Again with the Narrative - those are bad guys in the story that I personally don't want to go up against. When the CEO says his biggest competition is "inertia" I run screaming like I just saw a mouse.

Feel free to email me any responses I think we all know where we stand here and don't want to further clog the board.

FWIW - on a side note, after reviewing my negative feelings towards ROKU and LVGO I decided to drastically reduce my TTD position as the fact is we do NOT yet know if companies can demonstrably deliver better ROI with targeted ads, nor do we know Facebook/Google walls will fall. I believe those things are likely to happen but it's not certain. So I believe the Saulinian method is, above all, trying to invest in WHAT IS over WHAT MIGHT BE. And never settling for an A- stock when you have A+ stocks.

Fool On,

BD
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