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hey Joe,

Nice post. According to the Fortune article, people who registered with the Knot last year spent an average of $20,000 for their wedding (not $10,000). In regard to your other estimate, there were 2.5 million weddings in the U.S. last year, so we could perhaps hit 25 million weddings twice as fast as you projected. Also, the Knot has already achieved a 33% penetration rate among wedding parties, so your 50% number might be too conservative. Finally, all these numbers are for the U.S. and don't include other markets (such as Brazil).

Here's a downside I see: the trick is not getting people to register with the website. That's free. The real trick is to turn those registrations into cash. I seriously doubt the Knot will ever get 100% of wedding expenditures for a particular wedding party. So while your working numbers are low in regard to the size of the wedding market (I'm pretty sure the Knot gives a market estimate in their 10-K, I believe it was $30+ billion a year), it is probably unrealistic to conclude that the Knot could ever get 50% of that market, even under best case scenarios. A lot of wedding expenses are unlikely to ever go on-line (renting the church, etc.) and whatever number eventually ends up on-line (10%? 20%?), the Knot will have to split that number with competitors. 50% of the on-line market sounds like a pretty good estimate to me (as we only have one serious competitor right now, and first mover advantage is critical in this market I think).

Another thing to think about in regard to advertising revenues--the Knot's market here is potentially much broader than the wedding market. A lot of newlyweds, and wedding-to-bes, are in the process of buying a house, and furnishing that house. A wedding party is a very desirable demographic for many different markets. A wedding is a seismic shift in people's lives, and with that shift a lot of money is spent--not on a "once in a lifetime" things, but rather "once in a decade" things. So things that would not get counted as part of the "wedding" market (refrigerators, sofas, even houses) could conceivably be sold on the Knot.

I'm not really projecting numbers, as I feel there are too many unknowns to quantify. I just feel confident that at least a portion of the $30 billion wedding market will be spent through websites, and it seems reasonable to assume a good percentage of that will be spent on the Knot. Assuming we don't run out of cash first (which, of course, is a risky assumption, but one I am prepared to accept), I think we will easily reach $1 billion in market cap, and I think it likely to happen sooner rather than later.


Taylor
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