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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hey there zig,

I share some of your misgivings about biotech.. it hasn't stopped me from making money on biotechs, but they can be difficult to measure.
The speed to market advantage definitely goes to hi tech. Bio tech is heavily regulated. The trials take forever. It can take 10 years and 600 million dollars to get one product to market... then it has to compete.
Hi tech gorillas and godzillas are either winners or losers in 3-4 years... sometimes sooner.
I agree with you about the prospects for litigation resulting in a catastrophic decision, although you seem biased, calling the lawyer merely "ambitious" while labeling the scientist a "quack" :)

The science behind biotech is often indecipherable to the layman. I understand less than 2% of the technical language in bio tech press releases. I understand less than 10% of the explanations of those same releases by the kind articulate board members involved in the medical field who post translations.
I run some of my stuff by a client who works at Amgen... if she says the science is "brilliant" and seems "very promising, very marketable" I buy. I don't like investing that blindly, or in relying on others translations.

That said, drugs are discontinuous innovations. Drugs cross the chasm. Drugs enter the bowling alley. Drugs are proprietary. Drugs have high switching costs. Doctors and hospitals rally around the market leading drug and standardize on the product, excluding competitors. All classic gorilla criteria

I'm intrigued as well by the melding of hi tech with biotech. Chips embedded in cells, etc.
The companies that combine the two will truly be gorilla candidates.
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