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Nice first post with much thought. As a previous poster pointed out the glaring error is your sub estimate. You stated 100k in 02 and 250k in 03. These are WAY under the street estimates.

XM signed up 30k in 45 days. Starting in August this year GM will have XM as a factory installed option in 24 different models with yearly sales totalling 4 million vehicles. In the 2 GM vehicles currently offering the XM option about 4% of people are opting for it. Mind you, this is before anyone really knows about XM. If you take say 5% of those 4 million vehicles thats 200k per year. This year would be half that cause 03 models start around August, so 100k minimum OEM installs this year.

That says nothing about the aftermarket, which is where basically all the installs to date have come from. Even at a modest pace of 500 per day to match the current install rate thats 500*365=180k.

180k aftermarket plus 100k OEM this year looks to me like 280k in 2002. I realize this seems like a lot relative to the other consumer electronics products you brought up. But lets face it, revolutions sometimes happen.

Tomorrow is XM's conference call. 10 am EST, check it out on XM's website:

Their boss Hugh Panero will tell you how many subs they are forecasting for 2002, and also give current sub numbers. Expect guidance in the range of 300k to 400k by end of year 2002. Plug those numbers into your spreadsheet after the CC and get back to us. Seriously.

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