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Hi ADD, great post as usual (and tx for quoting me re Siegel's 6.6% "constant"!-).  However, Buffett amply addressed the `coin-flipping context` hypotheses almost 20 years ago -- surely you've read (if not, rush to do so -- if you have, re-read it, it's one of those classics that need to be re-read every few years to gain more new insights every time).

The continuing great results of these value-focused investors across 20 years of bulls and bears only strengthen Warren's arguments.

Sure, past performance is no guarantee of future results -- the sun might fail to rise tomorrow even though it always previously did -- but, would you bet on that, really...?

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