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Hi Chin,

By the way, the James Montier piece linked at the end of my original post is well worth the five minutes or so it takes to read and explains the rather cryptic "bad break" and "deserved success" comment I had at the end.

Montier got that from Paul DePodesta (of Michael Lewis' Moneyball fame) who had gotten it from Michael Mauboussin (of Expectations Investing) who had gotten it from Russo and Schoemaker, who have studied psychological mistakes (and show up in another Montier white paper, Seven Sins of Fund Management). Quite the chain! :-)

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