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Hi David (davidsharman):

You wrote:
"I'm not sure if you're right about Palm having won the PDA/PIM game. I think it has achieved Kingship but only for a limited period. It remains to be seen whether it can leverage this position to the bigger WID-OS game. the point is that all it has is a fairly limited OS, a good physical form, and a nice value chain (I wish I had as much). However if if it loses the superceding WID-OS game then it loses control over the form and the value chain and simply becomes a prince amongst box-makers (going up against Nokia's volumes BTW). "

I respectfully disagree with you, PALM IMO is the Gorilla in the OS PDA/PIM game. To me that game has been played out and PALM has won, it controls 70%+ of that market and is actively licensing its OS to SNE, HAND and others. PALM has an open proprietary architecture, a strong value chain, high switching costs (who wants to move all that data to another device?), it has undergone a tornado (PALM OS PDAs are seen now almost everywhere). In the PDA game Symbian and Microsoft are chimps. PALM IMO is a Gorilla in this area, a King doesn't have the kind of leverage that PALM holds.

I posted this in this board earlier this year:
PALM as RB and PDA Gorilla

Now I do agree with you that the smartphone/WID OS game has not been played out. Symbian has neat technology and has copied some of the best aspects of the PALM OS, but that will not necessarily propel it to the lead (I wish it were that simple, Apple would have done much better).

Here's a post that details Nokia's alliance with PALM:

Note I don't own any PALM, NOK or Psion stock, so my analysis is only based on how I see the technology adoption cycle based on my reading of the Gorilla Game, Living on the Fault Line and Inside the Tornado.

My take is that PALM has momentum in its favor and has a good chance of emerging the leader in this WID game, but a basket would certainly include Psion and Microsoft (not really NOK since they would not own the standard, they would just build the handsets).

In my study of PUMA I see late 2001 as a critical time point for the adoption of smartphones. The market for wireless internet is already in tornado mode in Japan, and its only a matter of time for it to tornado here in the U.S. QCOM will benefit greatly as these 3G systems get adopted and if CDMA is confirmed as the standard.


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