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No. of Recommendations: 2
Hi Hewitt,

Thanks for posting. I confess, this is the bleakest outlook I've seen. Comparing the US's prospects to 1920 Germany? That's even more dismal than the stuff John Mauldin posts (I quite like his stuff by the way).

I'm curious... I have no real ability to handicap macro prognostications. I can read a lot of different prediction, and I know enough to be able to follow along and understand the logic, but I can't handicap the odds of any of them being close to hitting the mark because I'm not knowledgeable enough to know what mitigating factors help round out the full picture. I've been operating under the assumption that housing will get worse... consumer spending will ease as a result... the economy will stall and we'll enter a recession that's not particularly deep, but may last a bit longer than most expect... we'll come out of it with a nice little bull market, but like the last decade we'll bounce around without making any lasting gains in the market for the next 5-10 years until normalized earnings catch up with valuations. It could take longer if taxes are raised substantially with the new incoming president.

The Fed being tapped out, nationalizing the entire financial system and hyperinflation didn't factor in to my thinking. I suppse you can't really second guess too critically the thinking of your guests or it might be tough to land interviews... but what's your take on Mr. Sheehan's predictions. A little overly gloomy maybe? I hope? It's so far beyond my ability to predict... I dont understand the reach of credit-default swaps or the liklihood the Fed will go bust.

Thanks,
kevin
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