No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Jason!

I'm sorry you're having this issue, and I'm reaching out to our Member Support team with this.

Thanks!
Tony
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No. of Recommendations: 2
You'll likely make more money by just buying a low-fee index fund and checking on it once a year.

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-funds/profile/VEXAX

intercst
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No. of Recommendations: 4
You have not given enough information to make any intelligent comment -

If you are nearing retirement and these three stocks are your entire portfolio I would say you are a fool. If however you are have sufficient wealth that losing half the value of this investment would not result in your loosing say your house, I would have a different answer.

If you can explain why you are smarter than the stock pickers at the likes of Vanguard, Schwab & Fidelity in a convincing manner, I will follow you advise and thoughts with great interest.

If you care to risk explaining how you have better information on the future of these stocks than the same stock pickers referenced above, I might ask if you are in possession of insider information.

Finally I assume you realize your projected returns would easily surpass the likes of Warren Buffet. Have you considered applying for his current job?
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No. of Recommendations: 10
l think it will easily reach 120 dollars ... l think it will also easily reach 120 dollars ... l think it will easily reach 280 dollars

Wrong board, wrong concept.

Everybody thinks that their favorite hot stock will go to the moon in a few years. Almost always, they don't.

The appropriate board for discussions like this would be the Hot Tips board, if TMF has such a board.

New poster, one post, touting 3 stocks. Has all the characteristics of a troll. Are you?
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I am currently thinking to buy and hold these 3 stocks for the next 5 years through the detailed analysis I believe...

What analysis? What is your track record using this analysis on predicting not only whether a stock will go up or down but an actual amount it will go up in an arbitrary time increment? And while we're at it, how much are you predicting the S&P 500 will go up or down in the same time increment?

Can you guys please comment and review my 3 choices and please let me know if they are good stocks to buy? Thank you.

No. You haven't shown us any analysis so we have no way to comment on how accurate it might be. You have the secret analysis. Why don't you explain it and tell us how well it has worked in the past?
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No. of Recommendations: 0
The appropriate board for discussions like this would be the Hot Tips board, if TMF has such a board.

I have a Hot Tips portfolio with no real money involved. Let's just say it isn't doing that great.

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Guys,

I am not attempting to undermine anyone here so please don't do the same. First of all these stocks have low liquidity compare to the stocks warren buffet buys. Even if he did buy these stocks, he would properly only invest 0.1% of his portfolio in these stocks. Anything more will not be absorbed by the liquidity.

In a statement, Warren Buffet did say he can easily make 50% annual return with much smaller capital so it's possible.

The analysis l did which l have backtested with 200 stocks and it all worked out. I have a self-designed spreadsheet which calculates a forecasted average return with the combination of the company's average EPS growth, Equity growth, revenue growth and free cash flow for the past 5 years and discount that average growth rate by 60% to discount any potential error. I then compare the 60% with the growth rate forecasted on yahoo finance for the company. I will again discount the higher rate of these two rates by 70% and use the lowest possible growth rate for the prediction along with the assumption that the company's price-earnings ratio doesn't change at all even if the EPS or stock price increases over the coming 5 years which is very conservative.

For NMI Holding INC,

I discounted the average rate to be 51% growth for the next 5 years with Price earnings ratio of 15.6.
Yahoo finance states that the average growth rate of NMI holding will be 43.24% for the next 5 years.
I then discount the lowest rate of here which is 43.24%b by 70% to include any potential error which concludes the growth rate I will use for prediction will be 30.6% which is very conservative. Using special discount rate method with 30.6% it will result in $103.59 within 5 years time easily. Remember I have backtested this method with 200 stocks and it all worked well. These companies also have very little debt. I wanted to attach a screenshot of my analysis on here but it won't let me paste. Please comment on my analysis. This kind of stocks exist rarely. I found these stocks using strict filters on Finviz stock screener before l did the analysis. So please comment.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I also used my spreadsheet method to have performed analysis on every company, which was listed on Motley fool's stock recommendations since 2002. Doing so, l would have eliminated or not bought into the losing companies given low growth rate and troubled predication growth rate and with some losers, l would have taken profit before the tumble, which essentially means a held looser turned into a winner. if you guys want me to perform any further analysis on a particular company, please state here and l am more than happy to perform it on here for you with the detailed calculations to see if the stock has the potential for growth in the future. Thank you.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
By the way, my goal is to retire super rich as l am only 27 years old. I would not invest in equities if l was near retirement age.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
You need to get your bony ass over to Saul’s Investing Discussions! He has just posted his May portfolio and why. He does this every month. No need to thank me. He just re-posted a clarification about his stocks(he only has 9). Those guys would love to hear a deep-dive from you concerning your stocks. Too many conservative old farts on this board. But I read this board every day, learned a lot. But also read Saul’s board every day please.


John
=================
58% YTD last Friday
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Oops! Here is Saul’s May portfolio post:

https://boards.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-may-2019-...
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No. of Recommendations: 0
And yes, I have a 50/50 diversification between Saul Index and stable stuff.
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No. of Recommendations: 4
By the way, my goal is to retire super rich as l am only 27 years old. I would not invest in equities if l was near retirement age.
_____________________________
Actually, you'll probably want to keep some equities (maybe a lot!) in your portfolio, even after you reach retirement. Bonds and CDs are vulnerable to inflation. And your return is limited to the stated coupon rate, except for deeply discounted high-yield bonds. And if you're wary on equities as a retirement investment, you probably don't want junk bonds either. I like both, but I buy both with my eyes open as to the risk. And I still got burned by Sears Holdings. I had a lot of company, but that's little comfort.

But there's a big universe of stocks out there, most of which are much safer than the items that seem to interest you.

Bill
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No. of Recommendations: 2
I would not invest in equities if l was near retirement age.

I would urge you to read the updated Trinity study and look at portfolio survival rates for the various equity/bond splits. You will see that if you completely leave out equities (i.e. 100% bonds), you will have to have a much lower withdrawal rate to have your portfolio survive at least 30 years. Here's the Wiki entry from the Bogleheads forum on the updated study: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Trinity_study_update

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 1
- NMI Holding Inc is currently priced at 28 dollars and l think it will easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years
-Exelixis is currently priced at 20 dollars and l think it will also easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years
...Can you guys please comment


As long as you asked for a comment:
28-->120 in five years is a compound annual growth rate of 33.8%.
20-->120 in five years is a compound annual growth rate of 43%.

That sounds to me like speculation, not investment.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Remember these two stocks are picked out of 8000 stocks out of the whole. As a fund or individual investor you would never put all your savings into two stocks, you will need at least 10 stocks to be diversified. So over the long term, the diversified portfolio return might not be as high. Please comment on my analysis guys. I want to know what you guys think?
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I want to know what you guys think?

I think you're posting on the wrong board. You won't get any useful discussion going here.

-IGU-
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Also has any of you used Mortley fool stock adviser 2 stocks a month service before? And how are the results? Please share with me. Thank you.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Yes, everyone uses that. But Saul’s Investing Discussions does very deep dives into those stocks. I guess you are ignoring me but all your answers are over on Saul’s board.
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All of 2017 I cherry picked Stock Advisor recommendations and was up 33% for the year.
Then moseying around trying to find someone to answer my stupid questions I ran into Motley Fool’s Recommendation rating contest. Saul was at the top. Since then I’ve never looked back. There is no nonsense over there.
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No. of Recommendations: 16
Too many conservative old farts on this board.

“Retirement investing” is pretty much the opposite of “speculative investing”, which is much of what Saul’s board is about. That doesn’t make it bad, it just makes “retirement investing” more appropriate for people who are not going to have a paycheck coming in and therefore need more assurance that their income stream from investments will be there with regularity and surety.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi MoneySlob,

If you looked over to Saul's posting, I did make comments there but received no reply yet. Can we discuss about our future stock picking strategies? Thank you. I would also like to help others to be successful as well as learning new knowledge about investment.

By the way what's your return so far and are you retired yet?
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hey,

Also my current evaluation method despite its accuracy cannot account for companies with negative EPS for the past 5 years. It's something l would like to hear on how you guys value these companies. Thank you.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
It's something l would like to hear on how you guys value these companies

This board doesn't.

You won't find individual stock analysis on this board. We don't get that granular. At best, we might discuss individual mutual funds but this board is much more macro in our discussions.
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No. of Recommendations: 11
I would also like to help others to be successful as well as learning new knowledge about investment.

Hubris much?

What is your background where you'd be able to "help others to be successful"? Your very first TMF post was 2 days ago. There are lots of people on this board and other TMF boards that have been around for 15-20 *years*.

How far back does your experience go? In recent years I have read many, many articles & strategies written by people whose investing experience began after the 2008/2009 bear market. They have confused a rising market for genius.

You've written a spreadsheet. Great. How do you know that what you have plugged into your spreadsheet has any actual new value for investing?

You come in and tout 3 stocks that you predict will grow 10 times in the next 5 years. So what? The internet is full of predictions about stocks. What makes your predictions special and different from all the others?
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No. of Recommendations: 11
If you looked over to Saul's posting, I did make comments there but received no reply yet.

What you did was post your "analysis" onto Saul's monthly portfolio update. Unless you are commenting on Saul's portfolio - asking questions about it or noticing something about it - they're going to ignore you.

The posters on that board are reasonably well-disciplined. You need to stick very closely to their posting norms to get their attention.

I'd suggest you read a couple hundred of the recent posts on that board to get a feel for it before you try again. And when you do, start a new thread. I'd also suggest you read through their long-ish FAQ (the links are at the top to the right of the body of the post). And then do a better job of describing your analysis of the stocks. Here's a hint for that - saying you put some information into a spreadsheet isn't going to cut it. What information? What does the spreadsheet do? Why are you doing whatever it is you are doing in the spreadsheet? What is the investing insight you gain with your analysis? Why is that insight relevant?

There are some pretty sharp people on that board. And you do seem to be looking at the kinds of stocks they look at. But you've got to do some work to get a response. Frankly, what you posted here looks like a typical pump and dump post. No substance, just a bare statement that these stocks are going to do well in the future with some nebulous reason as to why.

--Peter
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No. of Recommendations: 17
Also has any of you used Mortley fool stock adviser 2 stocks a month service before? And how are the results? Please share with me. Thank you.

When I joined TMF a long time ago, TMF's advice was to avoid hucksters selling investment advice. I'm taking their advice and not buying their Stock Advisor service.

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I am currently thinking to buy and hold these 3 stocks for the next 5 years through the detailed analysis I believe:

- NMI Holding Inc is currently priced at 28 dollars and l think it will easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years


-Exelixis is currently priced at 20 dollars and l think it will also easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years

-Five below has been doing extremely well for the past 5 years and is currently priced at 131.46 dollars and l think it will easily reach 280 dollars within the next 5 years.

Can you guys please comment and review my 3 choices and please let me know if they are good stocks to buy? Thank you.


Sure. Individual stocks are a lousy investment unless you purchase a random stock portfolio of 70+ stocks and passively hold on for the long term where you, according to studies, will most likely get the same return as the total market.

Buy the total stock market domestic and international, and get back to us in 5 years. We shall see how the three stocks do compared to the index. By the way, those of us who own the index, already own shares in your three picks. ;-)

Pro Tip: Here's an idea for you. Go jump on a message board full of investors with 7 figure portfolios they have accumulated over a lifetime of working using their human capital to accumulate wealth in stocks, bonds, and real estate. While on that message board at age 27, tell them some hot tips on three stocks. Get back to us on what the reaction was.

:-)
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi Guys,

I have already stated please do not undermine my work. I am posting simple calculations on here for the sake of pure simplicity. The real work took to get to the analysis results is not something a page or two can be used to describe on here.

The spreadsheet contains very detailed and complex evaluation methods, if done so without excel formulas and in Buffet's time would have taken 3 days to complete the full detailed analysis on one single company. Second of all, l did say l have backtested the 200 stocks between the period of 2014 to 2018 with the detailed analysis and it was all right. Also, l have backtested the losers on Mortley fool stock advisors and I would clearly determine it was a bad investment from the start anyways and would have avoided the loosers and have taken profit before the price tumbled.

These 3 stocks are just an example of 3 stocks l selected out of 8000 stocks on stock screeners with very strict criteria as l have mentioned.

Despite being 27, I have generated good returns for past years.
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No. of Recommendations: 13
The spreadsheet contains very detailed and complex evaluation methods,

But that tells us nothing about your process. No one can comment on your evaluation unless you actually describe how you evaluated things. That's why you're not getting any feedback.

l have backtested the 200 stocks between the period of 2014 to 2018

Your back test does not include any bear market periods, so it's pretty much useless as a test. This is another reason you may not be getting any feedback. You seem to be unaware of what it takes to properly back test your method. I would not trust any back test unless it includes at least 2 bear markets. Try running your back test starting some time in the 1990s or earlier. Personally, I'd go for at least 30 or 40 years. Then people might begin to take you seriously.

I'm honestly trying to help you here. You may have a very good idea, but you are not presenting it well. And that poor presentation is hurting you.

--Peter
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No. of Recommendations: 0
By the way what's your return so far and are you retired yet?

58% YTD for my agressive.
(I also have a lot of ENPH, not a Saul stock).

Retired May 1st.
I have no immediate need for the portfolio profits but I am 50/50 diversified.
I mentioned this already in this thread.

It feels like I am thumb wrestling with you.

It seems like you are shopping for an answer.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Too many conservative old farts on this board.

“Retirement investing” is pretty much the opposite of “speculative investing”, which is much of what Saul’s board is about. That doesn’t make it bad, it just makes “retirement investing” more appropriate for people who are not going to have a paycheck coming in and therefore need more assurance that their income stream from investments will be there with regularity and surety.


Yes. But I believe I read here some time ago that the best split between stocks and bonds, is 60%/40%. I think it was a study done by Harvard or New York Times. I have a 50%/50% split going right now.

I do love this board and read it religiously and welcome any and all input. It has made me be a little more careful.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
"The spreadsheet contains very detailed and complex evaluation methods, if done so without excel formulas and in Buffet's time would have taken 3 days to complete the full detailed analysis on one single company. Second of all, l did say l have backtested the 200 stocks between the period of 2014 to 2018 with the detailed analysis and it was all right. Also, l have backtested the losers on Mortley fool stock advisors and I would clearly determine it was a bad investment from the start anyways and would have avoided the loosers and have taken profit before the price tumbled.

These 3 stocks are just an example of 3 stocks l selected out of 8000 stocks on stock screeners with very strict criteria as l have mentioned. "

---

When you have backtested your method for 50 years, including a couple of bear markets, let us know how well it works.

A lot of folks made a lot of money during the 1990s. A lot of folks LOST a lot of money being greedy in the dot.com bust.

Personally, I wouldn't touch a company without years of earnings. No up and coming companies with billions in debt, no income, big cash flow but big debt and borrowing borrowing borrowing to keep funding growth.

Then again, I'm happily retired and don't need to 'accumulate' a nest egg. I need to preserve my nest egg.

Oh, and it's easy to say 'I'd sell' but many folks ride stocks most of the way down thinking it's coming back.......and just can't pull the trigger to sell ....



t.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
.... l did say l have backtested .....



If you want to learn about developing solid backtesting results, you would be well-served to stop by the Mechanical Investing board. There is a lot more to backtesting than meets the eye.

https://boards.fool.com/mechanical-investing-100093.aspx
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No. of Recommendations: 1
"Yes. But I believe I read here some time ago that the best split between stocks and bonds, is 60%/40%. I think it was a study done by Harvard or New York Times. I have a 50%/50% split going right now."


Trinity Study and the follow ups by Berman and others.......for 30 year 'safe withdrawal rates' from portfolios of various percentage from 0% bonds to 100% bonds with the corresponding percentage of SP500 index stocks. The bonds were treasury bonds. The peak rate happened between 50-70% stock. use 4% as a rule of thumb

Lots of info here

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/safe-withdrawal-rate-sw...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_study

now for the advanced

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumption_smoothing

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Trinity_study_update

but first you have to accumulate enough.

Slow, steady growth over 30-40-50 years is the way most succeed.

Few have the insider information to be able to react fast enough to 'rising stars' in time to avoid a slaughter when things turn down, and the P/E plummets from 60 to 6 in 24 hours. Same with the stock price



t.
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No. of Recommendations: 26
I have already stated please do not undermine my work.

Do you want feedback or not? Giving feedback is not 'undermining' your work. It's telling you what we think about what you've posted. The feedback from this board is that you seem to be a pump and dump promoter of speculative stocks. Based on what you've posted, I don't disagree with that feedback.

As already mentioned here several times - you are probably on the wrong board if you want positive feedback on 3 individual speculative stocks. You need to understand your audience BEFORE you ask for feedback. Obviously, you haven't done that with this board. I second the suggestion to go read a couple hundred posts back. You will see that this board does not provide the type of environment that is aimed at speculative investments in individual stocks.

And as far as your analysis - you haven't actually posted any analysis (i.e. numbers, insights on strategies and why they will/won't work, etc.) You've said you've done backcasting, developed a spreadsheet and used some filters to look at a bunch of stocks, but haven't given us any details on what was used. If you actually want feedback on your methods, you need to provide details, not just hand-waving.

If what you want is suggestions on how to save for your retirement, and get set up to have the ability to retire earlier than many of your peers, you've come to the right board. If what you're looking for is suggestions on how to become extremely wealthy by the time you're 30, you're looking in the wrong place.

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Despite being 27, I have generated good returns for past years.

Okay, you're 27 now. So when the financial crisis hit in 2007/8, you were what, 15 or 16? Since 2009, when the market bottomed out, almost everyone has generated great returns. You still have said nothing to impress me that you have any advice that should be listened to.

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 0

Trinity Study and the follow ups by Berman and others.......for 30 year 'safe withdrawal rates' from portfolios of various percentage from 0% bonds to 100% bonds with the corresponding percentage of SP500 index stocks. The bonds were treasury bonds. The peak rate happened between 50-70% stock. use 4% as a rule of thumb

Lots of info here


Thanks telegraph!
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No. of Recommendations: 3
I'm getting curious if he is going to relent and provide more information. And/or responds to the feedback with something more substantial than the plaint "Don't harsh my mellow!"

Because so far, it doesn't look promising.

So, JasonRen, how about it?

---------------

Ah, here's another thought for you.

Publish your original post -- or the basics of it -- on SeekingAlpha (https://seekingalpha.com/submission ) or on a board at http://www.early-retirement.org/forums . Or both.

At early-retirement, try the FIRE and Money board (which I follow) or the Stock Picking and Market Strategy board (which I don't, so I wouldn't see your post there).

I warn you though, as AJ said, just saying that you wrote "a spreadsheet that contains very detailed and complex evaluation methods" isn't going to cut it. Anywhere.


... 3 stocks [selected] with very strict criteria as l have mentioned.

Um, you haven't actually mentioned the criteria. Or the evaluation methods.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
And look, if you say "I backtested the 200 stocks between the period of 2014 to 2018", you are going to get nothing but derisive laughter.

For three (3) reasons.

I'll leave it to you to figure out (or ask) what the 3 reasons are.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Ah, here's another thought for you.

You've posted spreadsheets for us in the past. Maybe you can help him post his spreadsheet.

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 4
The real work took to get to the analysis results is not something a page or two can be used to describe on here.

Then how do you think you are going to get any useful feedback here?

The spreadsheet contains very detailed and complex evaluation methods, if done so without excel formulas and in Buffet's time would have taken 3 days to complete the full detailed analysis on one single company.

Yes, Buffet is very old and you are just 27. But did you know that this year is the 40th anniversary of the spreadsheet? It may seem to you that old people just don't "get" everything that you young people get...but computers have been used for investing for a long time. Sure, you can now carry around a powerful computer in your pocket...but having one that had to sit on your desk or fill up a room didn't stop people many decades ago from using them to analyze stocks. And they did. But I doubt this is Buffet's methodology.

Second of all, l did say l have backtested the 200 stocks between the period of 2014 to 2018 with the detailed analysis and it was all right.

I don't think you understand backtesting. The concept doesn't mean to pick a time when all stocks are going up and confirm that your method works. Try backtesting that includes 1987, 2000-2002, 2007-2008.

Mike
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No. of Recommendations: 2
You've posted spreadsheets for us in the past. Maybe you can help him post his spreadsheet.

Your wish is my command.

https://www.dropbox.com/

Sign up for a free account.
Upload the spreadsheet. Make it public (the default for a free account.)
Click the button that copies the spreadsheet's link to your clipboard.
Paste that link into the reply that you post here.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Try backtesting that includes 1987, 2000-2002, 2007-2008.

One problem is that he can't backtest to 1987 for any of his three stocks. One has never experienced a recession.

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi guys,

Investing greatly are not determined by your age. If you know what you doing, you could be investing well at the age of 15 or 16 like Warren Buffet. So please don't bring the age context into this matter. I have already said my analysis on the spreadsheet is very complicated and will be extremely difficult to discuss word by word in order for you guys to understand. But one thing I will say is that, why would you have invested during the bear market during the financial crisis? An excellently managed company will not just show troubles within a very short year and in extreme cases, it will but it's very rare. If you had analyzed the company stocks even before 2007 you will know companies are struggling especially the banking sector. Their equity return for the previous 5 years combined before 2008 is negative, EPS going down, Debt going up, Revenue going down. I mean why would you buy into stocks? Their value is just not proportional to their results on their financial statements. I am not a buy and hold forever investor. Like I said I know my price target before I even enter a stock and how much the stock should be worth before it tumbles.

Buying into aggressive growth stock is also a form of retirement investing. If you want to retire super-rich, this is the way. Anyone including a 10-year-old kid can buy into a mutual fund without any thinking skills in order to be profitable. This is not my aim. I praise for the money guy who makes 50% YTD a year, he will be retiring much richer than guys who just want to buy mutual funds and rely on others to make a single digit return. Testing bear market is irrelevant because well-managed growth company will always outperform. if you know how to select companies extremely well, all you need to do to recover and take your equity to a new height is simply buy the company at much cheaper price. For me, this is more of pyschological combat rather than analysis skill. It's well documented that the pain of loosing $1000 is worth twice more than the pleasure of gaining $1000. If you have no emotions and unhuman emotions, you will be guranteed to do well in stock markets. This is just it, it's nothing extremely complicated.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Hi,

Why bother research for mutual funds which gives you single digit returns? Just buy SP500 every month, 30 years down the line you will make good returns along with the dividends. Give me any stock on here, I will perform the full analysis for you and tell you how much the stock should worth in 5 years and believe me you will regret not buying this stock. Thank you. I believe anyone should be welcomed to discuss their strategy here. So Saul replying just to posts about his own strategy is not open to any investors who want to discuss their views and learn more knowledge.
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No. of Recommendations: 14
Hitler
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These are the stocks I purchased in 2014 and held to 2018 according to my analysis, please have a look at the stock price yourself:

1. Ulta beauty inc
2. Centene Corp
3. HDFC bank limited
4. Tal education
5. Old Dominion Freight Inc
6. Axon Enterprise Inc

These stocks have at least doubled some even triple quadrupled.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I have already said my analysis on the spreadsheet is very complicated and will be extremely difficult to discuss word by word in order for you guys to understand.

I'm sure there are plenty of people here that could understand your spreadsheet. Post it up - Ray gave you the instructions. I doubt many people will analyze your stocks when you keep telling us you are the smartest person in the room.

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I have 500k portfolio running once I hit the 1 million USD mark, I will retire. I started investing not because of wanting to retire early, I started because I really was obsessed with the idea of investing. I am here just to exchange ideas and not attack anyone. But I feel since I made my first post, I am getting constantly attacked because I am a young guy who should not know anything about investing simply because I am young.

And yes, I will be applying for a fund portfolio manager job this year in August once I have moved into my new apartment. Thank you.
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No. of Recommendations: 12
I have already said my analysis on the spreadsheet is very complicated and will be extremely difficult to discuss word by word in order for you guys to understand.

I believe this is a quote from Bernie Madoff? Or perhaps Jeff Skilling? Dunno. Maybe it was Charles Ponzi.

If you want to retire super-rich, this is the way.

No, it’s really not. In fact, it’s almost equally likely to be the way to retire super-poor.

But one thing I will say is that, why would you have invested during the bear market during the financial crisis

Well, because you could have bought twice as much of almost anything you wanted at half price, maybe better? It’s called “a sale”, and stores do it all the time. Just a tip there to help you along.

If you know what you doing, you could be investing well at the age of 15 or 16

Sure you could get lucky, but then you might also say or do things that are astonishingly stupid. Happens all the time. For instance, you might not understand why you buy things at the bottom, like in a bear market.

Buying into aggressive growth stock is also a form of retirement investing

I’m going to guess for most people, especially those who inhabit a board called ‘Retirement Investing” this is 100% wrong.

Testing bear market is irrelevant because well-managed growth company will always outperform.

There’s one of those dumb things I was mentioning. Hardening back just to the go-go 90’s, was Dell poorly managed? Cisco? Time Warner? Lucent? Going back to the Nifty Fifty (look it up, I expect you don’t know what that is) got absolutely crushed in a bear market, and these were names like Coca Cola, Polaroid, Avon, Anheuser Busch, Kodak, GE, Proctor & Gamble, Phillip Morris, IBM. Were they poorly managed?

Investing greatly are not determined by your age.

“Experience” is. It looks like you are going to get some. I hope the tuition is not too expensive.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
you are misunderstanding my point. I didn't say good companies stock price won't drop during the bear market. Of course, they will, what I am saying here is those good companies will always recover. I said do not buy during 2008 is because prices at that point are extremely high and are not proportionate to the value shown on the company's financial statements. Of course, as the stock markets crash, it will be of extreme value to rebuy into the same company at much lower prices. We are talking about long term investing here not speculation. 2008 alone won't matter with the strong companies you mentioned above. let's just say if you bought the stock every month nonstop you will be guaranteed to make the profit back over the long term. A lot of hedge funds have recovered this year with the same stocks. So please read and understand properly before you make assumptions. Thank you
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Dollar average works wonders.
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No. of Recommendations: 7
So Saul replying just to posts about his own strategy is not open to any investors who want to discuss their views and learn more knowledge.

Again, you are not reading much of anyones replies.
Saul gets his ideas from Motley Fool, Bert Hochfield, and members of his board. He is open to a real review of a stock and he tells you how he does it.

Look, you wandered onto this group with a hidden agenda, which was to garner up some customers. You should join a Facebook group or go upstairs and ask your parents for a hug.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
It will only work wonders if you can psychologically handle the swing which I would say its harder than the analysis part. Analysis information is everywhere and published by every big firm out there. I really don't see how you cant generate positive returns if you buy into 20 plus solid good growth companies in different sectors with solid foundations with the dollar cost average method. Amazingly, you can regularly find these stocks published on the internet. The hard part is to be able to hold these 20 stocks with a dollar cost average method year in year out without being emotionally affected at all. If you read Benjamin Graham's book, his famous saying is an average investor would do better without any price quotations than someone who regularly looks at a stock price every minute and worry about any news.
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Ok guys, this is my last post. Have a happy investing journey!
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No. of Recommendations: 2
MisterFungi:

"Hitler"

I invoke the relevant corollary to Godwin's Law; EOM.

Regards, JAFO
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Hitler

ROAR! ROFLMAO

MisterFungi winz the internetz for this day.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
Ok guys, this is my last post. Have a happy investing journey!

In retrospect, I think that I should have clicked on the "mark as read" link instead of reading through this entire thread.

At 74, my investing time horizon is 16 years at least. It may be as long as 26 years should I make it to 100.

Even after five years of mandatory RMD withdrawals, my investments have tripled in value since I retired in 2013. I'm not sure under what conditions that I might be interested in stocks that would only double in the next five years. I have far too many stocks that are between 5 and 10 times their original value when I purchased them in 2002 when I rolled a former employer's 401(k) into my current IRA.

One person in this thread mentioned that most readers of Retirement Investing invest in index funds. Due to several unfortunate experiences with mutual funds in my youth, I am not one and have avoided them. I have started to dabble in mutual funds since retiring. For the most part, they have been mutual funds that generate no taxable dividends either because they invest in municipal bonds or their dividends are characterized as a Return of Capital.

With the total amount of my current, annual RMD withdrawals; the last thing that I need is additional taxable income. I don't think the original poster quite understood that the readers of this board might be more interested in managing their income stream than in raw growth of their assets.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
MCCrockett writes,

At 74, my investing time horizon is 16 years at least. It may be as long as 26 years should I make it to 100.

</snip>


If you have more money than you can spend (which I assume is likely), your investing horizon and asset allocation should be closer to that of your heirs.

intercst
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No. of Recommendations: 0
"If you have more money than you can spend (which I assume is likely), your investing horizon and asset allocation should be closer to that of your heirs.

intercst "

*********************************************************

I would expect that the most loving and caring parent or guardian will
lose active interest in their portfolio after passing away. The importance of
investment horizons - and actual horizons likely dims once the ferryman has been
adequately reimbursed.
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No. of Recommendations: 2
Of course, they will, what I am saying here is those good companies will always recover.

Those who don’t pay attention to history are doomed to repeat it.

My boss and I were just talking about Eastern Airlines yesterday. Used to be the dominant airline in the 70’s and then <poof>.

Oh yeah: and Pan Am.

You’re not old enough to remember Enron. But it really happened.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
intercst suggests,

If you have more money than you can spend (which I assume is likely), your investing horizon and asset allocation should be closer to that of your heirs.

Your assumption is correct but life always manages to throw you some curves. My projections were for my wife to live for, at least, 4-6 years after I died at 100. My wife died in January without a will. I hadn't expected her mother who died last year without a will in October of last year at 100 to be leaving her an inheritance of over $500K.

At least under California's intestacy laws, the full amount of my wife's inheritance won't end up in my estate. Our three children should, each, inherit roughly $120K now. They'll have to wait until I kick the bucket to split the remainder of my wife's inheritance plus my wealth.

My children seem to think that I'm far too frugal. They think that I should indulge myself and spend some of their inheritance. Koenigseggs and Bugattis have moved out of my price range. Perhaps, I should look at something less expensive like a Bentley Silver Spur. Or, I could simply replace my 20-year old VW Passat with a newer version.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Hitler

LOL. Nice try. But I fear this discussion of analysis without analysis has legs.
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No. of Recommendations: 28
I have 500k portfolio running once I hit the 1 million USD mark, I will retire.

Good luck with that. Given your expected growth rates, that should be sometime next year. A million isn't what it used to be, and for someone to think that they could retire at 28 or 29 with only $1MM, and not be willing to invest in equities reminds of a poster named Hocus.

I am here just to exchange ideas and not attack anyone.

If you're here to exchange ideas, then why don't you actually provide the analysis that you did? Waving your hands and saying that it's so complex that you can't explain it isn't 'exchanging ideas' - it's just trying to boast about how smart you are, and how dumb we are if we don't agree with you.

But I feel since I made my first post, I am getting constantly attacked because I am a young guy who should not know anything about investing simply because I am young.

No, it's not because you're young, it's because you don't listen and respond to what people are telling you. We attack old people who do that, too.

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 11
- NMI Holding Inc is currently priced at 28 dollars and l think it will easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years

NMI Holdings is a small mortgage insurance outfit that will get decimated when home sales inevitably drop. The trend in existing home sales has already turned. There is no moat here.

-Exelixis is currently priced at 20 dollars and l think it will also easily reach 120 dollars within the next 5 years

Exelixis is yet another biotech startup trying to cure cancer. Maybe one of these will be successful? No reason to believe it will be this one. Most likely outcome is bankruptcy. Next most likely outcome is a buyout well short of your $120 goal.

-Five below has been doing extremely well for the past 5 years and is currently priced at 131.46 dollars and l think it will easily reach 280 dollars within the next 5 years.

Five Below will over-expand. It’ll probably avoid bankruptcy. It’s not clear to me why dollar stores, Wal-Mart, and Target can’t undercut Five Below in existing stores. Target seems to be doing this already. It may eventually double but not in 5 years.

I spent five minutes determining these were not good investment ideas. It took longer to write this up. Complex spreadsheets can give very precise wrong answers. Pay attention to the wider world around your ideas.

Regards,

- HCF
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No. of Recommendations: 16
Have you ever watched a video or performance or something and then scratch your head and say, "What was THAT????" Yeah, this is that.

Pump and dump?

Incompetent pump and dump?

The analog of a teenage boy getting his first nookie and then running to tell all the adults, "You guys DON'T KNOW what you are missing out on!"?

Kinda the only thing missing was the claim that the spreadsheet had been developed by NASA rocket scientists in their spare time. Dang, we don't even get good trolls anymore--what's this young generation coming to?
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Can you guys please comment and review my 3 choices and please let me know if they are good stocks to buy? Thank you.

The details of your analysis (for growth) give no reason that those three stocks shouldn't rise as you predict (up to 43% per year). You can sink as much money into them as your analysis supports (for volatility).
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Have a rec just for the "Don't harsh my mellow!" blurb... Sitting in the office and that actually made me laugh. :D

Draggon
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Yes, home sales might drop in the future, but why? The population is on the rise year in and year out. There will always be more demand for homes, especially in the USA. If you look at the performance of NMI holding and compare it within the industry. It has a moat, Compare the number 1 mortgage insurance company with NMI holding and you will know how much potential NMI holding has.

Exelixis is trying to cure cancer? If you read their reports, you know how well they have been doing for the past 5 years. They have chains of cancer efficient drugs approved by FDA and will be launched next year or so.

Five below will double within 5 years as I stay by my analysis. Thank you.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
These are the stocks I purchased in 2014 and held to 2018 according to my analysis, please have a look at the stock price yourself:

1. Ulta beauty inc
2. Centene Corp
3. HDFC bank limited
4. Tal education
5. Old Dominion Freight Inc
6. Axon Enterprise Inc
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No. of Recommendations: 0
When I purchased those stocks with all my savings back in 2014, my family and friends doubted me too because they said I am too young to know anything or design something smart.

Well guys, check out the stock price yourself and you know how much I have made.
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No. of Recommendations: 6
When I purchased those stocks with all my savings back in 2014, my family and friends doubted me too because they said I am too young to know anything or design something smart.

I highly doubt those stocks were the only ones you invested in. Give us your losers too.

Well guys, check out the stock price yourself and you know how much I have made.

Not without your total portfolio and your starting amount.

Three more posts after "my last post".

PSU
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No. of Recommendations: 1
MCCrockett: "Your assumption is correct but life always manages to throw you some curves. My projections were for my wife to live for, at least, 4-6 years after I died at 100. My wife died in January without a will. I hadn't expected her mother who died last year without a will in October of last year at 100 to be leaving her an inheritance of over $500K.

At least under California's intestacy laws, the full amount of my wife's inheritance won't end up in my estate. Our three children should, each, inherit roughly $120K now. They'll have to wait until I kick the bucket to split the remainder of my wife's inheritance plus my wealth."


If you wanted to start distributing your wife's inheritance sooner, you could start making annual gifts to you children under the gift tax exclusion amount - $15k for 2019, also 15k to the child's spouse (if married) and if there are grandkids, you could fund 75K at once per grandkid using the 5 year election.

https://www.savingforcollege.com/article/how-much-can-you-co...

The 5-year election

"Individuals may contribute as much as $75,000 to a 529 plan in 2019 if they treat the contribution as if it were spread over a 5-year period. The 5-year election must be reported on Form 709 for each of the 5 years. For example, a $50,000 529 plan deposit in 2019 can be applied as $10,000 per year, leaving $5,000 in unused annual exclusion per year.

This is often a great estate-tax planning strategy for parents and grandparents. They're able to shelter a large amount of assets from estate taxes, while retaining control of the funds in the 529 account. However, if you do end up changing your mind down the road and revoking the funds in the account they will be added back to your taxable estate."

They only have to wait if you want to make them wait; just saying.

Regards, JAFO
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No. of Recommendations: 0
These are the only stocks I invested in, I divided all my savings equally into those stocks following strict stock screener criteria and analysis.


Currently, I have taken profits and reinvested my profits into:

1. facebook
2. NMI holding
3. Exelixis
4. Five Below
5. synopsys

Synopsys is a stock I picked off the Mortley fool list. I think it will easily reach 156 dollars. A quick 33% gain for me.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
This year super growth stock using Finviz stock screener has much less stocks than 2014. I will expand my investment following Mortley fool's stock list and detailed analysis following my method. I already mentioned combining my method with Mortley fool's stock recommendation is an even more powerful combination.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
I do not invest in stocks with negative EPS such as wix.com, Zscaler and such. I will wait if they turn profitable for the year with positive EPS. I will reconsider the analysis on them and might possibly invest. I will be giving my analysis and thoughts on the next two motley fool recommendations and let's see it will work.
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No. of Recommendations: 14
Yes, home sales might drop in the future, but why? The population is on the rise year in and year out. There will always be more demand for homes, especially in the USA.

Your lack of actual analysis is showing.

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 2
1. facebook
2. NMI holding
3. Exelixis
4. Five Below
5. synopsys


Y'know, _real_ investors use the stock symbol, not the company name. I think I first learned this a few decades ago, when I called my broker to buy a certain stock. I gave him the company name and he said, "What is the symbol?" When I said I don't know, he said, Hold on while I look it up.
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No. of Recommendations: 5
has much less stocks
...
Mortley fool

I've got it now. You are just trolling us. To what end, I cannot say. Does your Mom know you are using her computer?
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I have 500k portfolio running once I hit the 1 million USD mark, I will retire.

$1MM doesn't go as far as it used to...
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No. of Recommendations: 0
"Yes, home sales might drop in the future, but why? The population is on the rise year in and year out. There will always be more demand for homes, especially in the USA."

Maybe yes, maybe no. Depends where your house is. There are lots of abandoned houses in rural areas and small towns...... or you can buy them really really cheap. In rural KS and rural TX, the populations go down 10% every decade. Try Cimarron County OK......or most of the TX panhandle other than oil country out that way.

Housing prices depend upon finance. If interest rates spike, housing prices could seriously drop.

In 1990, I sold my townhouse in Arlington VA - suburb of DC , which I bought 7 years earlier for $133K, for $230,000 at a guaranteed buyout rate. Took the money and headed to TX. Six months later, the company that bought my house sold it at a $60,000 loss as the market for townhouses just dropped tremendously........ I lucked out.....

If you've ever read Kunstler's Long Emergency, he predicted back then that far suburbs would see large price drops in housing as folks had to move closer to urban areas as the price of gas became near un-affordable. So far, his predictions have been wrong and gas prices still reasonable and cars even more efficient. However, in his scenario, you couldn't give away your far suburbia house....

He's still predicting doom and gloom....

https://tinyurl.com/y4tsw98r


He was big on 'peak oil' but totally missed the shale oil/fracking revolution....


t
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No. of Recommendations: 8
Y'know, _real_ investors use the stock symbol, not the company name.

Going a bit off topic, here.

Using symbols instead of names has always bugged me. Doing so strikes me as some kind of insider language. And this comment just reinforces that. It comes across as being elitist.

I rather like the way the financial press addresses this point. The first time they refer to the company, they usually include the stock symbol and exchange. That way they can clearly identify the particular stock they are talking about, which is definitely a good thing. But then the rest of article will refer to the company by name. That seems to make the writing more accessible, especially for those who are not stock gurus.

I guess I'm saying that real investors use insider language as appropriate to the situation. And in this particular situation, I find the names rather than symbols appropriate.

--Peter
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No. of Recommendations: 1
He was big on 'peak oil' but totally missed the shale oil/fracking revolution....

</snip>


The "peak oilers" don't understand the oil industry. We've got 50 years of supply at current consumption in proven reserves. And another 50 plus years in "probable" and "possible" reserves waiting for a sufficiently high oil price, or the technology innovation to exploit it.

The so-called "fracking revolution" was just the combination of a GPS-guided drill bit that allowed low-cost horizontal drilling, and hydraulic formation fracturing which had been used since the 1950's.

We've had the technology to catch the last fish in the sea (i.e., sonar fish finding) for about 30 years. If there's enough demand for the product, we'll pump the last barrel of oil.

intercst
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No. of Recommendations: 1
NMI is a mortgage Insurance outfit. The business should have been doing pretty well for the
recent past but should be related to the housing market.

Ex2eliixis is a cancer based R&D drug company - and has a lot of "company" in the market.

Five below is a discount chain. Similar to Dollar Tree and others.

They may be good companies and one hopes they will do well for you. The businesses show
no reason for alarm - or reason for great expectations. Thorough due diligence would be
a prudent first step.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Yes, home sales might drop in the future, but why? The population is on the rise year in and year out. There will always be more demand for homes, especially in the USA. If you look at the performance of NMI holding and compare it within the industry. It has a moat, Compare the number 1 mortgage insurance company with NMI holding and you will know how much potential NMI holding has.

You’re confusing “I need a place to live” with “I wish to purchase a house.” They are not the same thing. Mortgage origination rates vary significantly with interest rates and employment.

Exelixis is trying to cure cancer? If you read their reports, you know how well they have been doing for the past 5 years. They have chains of cancer efficient drugs approved by FDA and will be launched next year or so.

Forgive me for being a grumpy old man but folks have been telling me that a cure for cancer is right around the corner for 45 years. I’ve learned that this time it’s never different. Also most start-ups, in most industries, aspire mostly to be acquired so founders and angel investors can cash out.

Five below will double within 5 years as I stay by my analysis. Thank you.

1. How many stores will that require?
2. What SSS growth rate is needed?
3. How does that compare with industry peers?
4. Your five-year window will include an inevitable recession. How to they plan to continue growth during this downturn?

Let me know if you want me to set a reminder for 31 May 2024 to revisit this bold prediction of yours.

Regards,

- HCF
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Pump and dump?

The kid reminds me of the genius investors of the irrational exuberance. It doesn’t seem to occur to him that stocks go down sometimes, even when there’s nothing wrong with the story. It seems genuine to me, if misguided. I could be wrong.

Regards,

- HCF
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No. of Recommendations: 7
The kid reminds me of the genius investors of the irrational exuberance. It doesn’t seem to occur to him that stocks go down sometimes, even when there’s nothing wrong with the story. It seems genuine to me, if misguided.


Well, yeah. That was my 2nd thought.

He hasn't engaged with any of the feedback, though. Just repeated the claims of a complex spreadsheet. And got huffy about being questioned. Come to think about it, yeah that sounds like a kid at his first rodeo.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Synopsys is a stock I picked off the Mortley fool list. I think it will easily reach 156 dollars. A quick 33% gain for me.

Synopsys has had a nice run of late. Why do you think this will continue short-term? It’s customers are hurting. I don’t short stocks (because the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent) but I would look at SNPS as a short candidate at current prices. What do you see that I’m missing?

See also:
https://boards.fool.com/semis-in-retreat-34211138.aspx

Regards,

- HCF
a happy user of Synopsys’s products
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No. of Recommendations: 0
That's the thing. I still do believe Benjamin Graham's most repeated saying in his book intelligent investor. When an investor is given no access to news, no price quotations to an excellent company. The investors will do much better than someone who is constantly worrying, checking prices, selling his stock the moment he hears negative news on TV.

Remember we are investors, we do not and cannot manage the company. The only factor we have is the ability to assess if the company's management is capable of running that company to the extent of maximizing shareholder wealth at all times. if you look through 2008, many well-managed companies with the excellent and capable management team have recovered pretty fast.

I understand the semi-conductor market is falling for Synopsys. But Synopsys is a well-run company with effective management whose market share is nowhere near the number 1 semiconductor company. I strongly believe it can compete for more of that market share. I believe it will grow at 6% per year for the next 5 years. which brings me estimation that the company should be worth 156 dollars.
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Of course, l might be wrong, no one can be 100% accurate. my company choices in 2014 which did have 100% accuracy of gaining at least 100% in stock prices might just be a one time luck. who knows? But I am happy if I can get 80% of my choices right.

If a company excels in its industry with 0 debt and really good excellent management team. They will have more possibility of excel in the next 5 years than not.
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No. of Recommendations: 0
Guys I have repeatedly stated on the reasons why I chose my stocks 2014 and why I chose my stocks now. I still don't get why people are posting stating I am not explaining myself apart from spreadsheet.

Warren Buffet's investment technique is nothing more than a spreadsheet. If he stated all his valuation techniques word by word to someone with great programming skills. That program will be able to design an Excel which replicates his valuation techniques.

Investing is all about prediction with return on equity, EPS and so on. Most importantly, discounted cash flow.
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No. of Recommendations: 11
That's the thing. I still do believe Benjamin Graham's most repeated saying in his book intelligent investor. When an investor is given no access to news, no price quotations to an excellent company. The investors will do much better than someone who is constantly worrying, checking prices, selling his stock the moment he hears negative news on TV.

Remember we are investors, we do not and cannot manage the company. The only factor we have is the ability to assess if the company's management is capable of running that company to the extent of maximizing shareholder wealth at all times. if you look through 2008, many well-managed companies with the excellent and capable management team have recovered pretty fast.


That's cute, but it doesn't explain your blind faith that Synopsys's recent performance will continue. You've only offered bromides to support your position, not facts.

It's good that you remember 2008. I have been using Synopsys's products since the mid-1990s. I remember the irrational exuberance. That's what this seems like, now.

I have probably two dozen Synopsys employees in my phone's contact list. A few are vice presidents. They are whip smart and very capable people. But even the most capable sailor doesn't control the weather.


I understand the semi-conductor market is falling for Synopsys. But Synopsys is a well-run company with effective management whose market share is nowhere near the number 1 semiconductor company. I strongly believe it can compete for more of that market share. I believe it will grow at 6% per year for the next 5 years. which brings me estimation that the company should be worth 156 dollars.

Synopsys is an EDA (electronic design automation) company. It doesn't make semiconductors. It licenses software to semiconductor makers. It's revenues depend significantly on whether its customers are starting new projects and developing new products.

Revenue growth in the EDA industry is driven by new offerings, typically through acquisition of start-ups. I don't see any promising new ideas on the horizon right now, and I'm very skeptical on the prospect of organic growth from here in the short term. It seems they're trying to spark some growth by offering software security tools; it's not clear to me they have any special insight in this area.

Synopsys's net income was up in 2018 apparently due to favorable income tax treatment. It's unclear that this will continue. Was this a one-off bump? Will this be permanent?

It's also not clear to me what impact the trade war with China will have on Synopsys's earnings going forward. Given the treatment that ZTE and Huawei have received recently, I expect the PRC will seek to develop it's own EDA technology going forward. Mentor Graphics is a division of Siemens now, and it's possible they may get more favorable treatment in China. Also consider what might happen if the US federal government decides that EDA software is restricted export technology and Chinese entities can no longer get licenses. What would that do to Synopsys's earnings?

This site shows stock price performance of SNPS over the last 25 years:
https://invest.kleinnet.com/bmw1/stats25/SNPS.html

The first chart show price on a logarithmic axis, appropriate since stock price grows geometrically. The stock price has run away the last few years. While it has grown at 5% CAGR over the last 25 years, it's much more likely from here that the price will return to the mean than continue to grow. You'll notice the last time SNPS stock price was this high (relative to its long-term average) was 1999.

There are two potential conclusions from this data:
1. Synopsys has dramatically improved its business and the past is no longer guide to future results.
2. The market is irrational and the price has been bid up to well above what the business fundamentals support.

I am very firmly in camp #2. You seem to be in camp #1 but can't explain why. Consider the possibility that you got lucky here and made some easy money. Take your profits, tip your cap to the market, and be grateful some rando on the Internet caught your mistake.

Regards,

- HCF
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No. of Recommendations: 18
Guys I have repeatedly stated on the reasons why I chose my stocks 2014 and why I chose my stocks now.

No, you haven't. You've waved your hands hard enough to start a hurricane. You haven't offered any details to back up your opinions. I re-read all your posts on this thread to confirm this.

You need to post something like this:
https://boards.fool.com/harris-corporation-hrs-29674610.aspx...
This was my one and only Post of the Day, from 2011. It's not that detailed but it explains why Harris was a good buy at the time.

From the available data, I think you can't distinguish between "I am a good investor" and "I have been lucky so far". You've offered no data to contradict this opinion.

Regards,

- HCF
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No. of Recommendations: 10
Guys I have repeatedly stated on the reasons why I chose my stocks 2014 and why I chose my stocks now. I still don't get why people are posting stating I am not explaining myself apart from spreadsheet.

Because you haven't explained the criteria and filters that you say you used. You have said, several times, that it's too complicated for you to explain it to us, and have just given us what you say are the stocks that you picked, and the results that you say you've had. Anyone can look at stock charts and say "I picked this list of stocks in 2014 and held until 2018 - my results speak for themselves" but it doesn't have to be true. In fact, many times, results like those are lies, with examples such as Bernie Madoff and Tom Petters, as well as the original Charles Ponzi, coming to mind.

I don't get why you keep asking for comments on your methods if you can't manage to explain your methods beyond "it's too complicated for me to explain."

AJ
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No. of Recommendations: 5
I'm really enjoying this endless loop. Maybe Jason came over here because he figured he could sound smart in front of a bunch of naive and easily impressed oldsters. Underestimating your elders has been in vogue in this culture for decades.

Me? Sorry J. I've already given my money to the pretty young girl down the street who's watching it for me.
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No. of Recommendations: 3
Me? Sorry J. I've already given my money to the pretty young girl down the street who's watching it for me. - Smurfdogg

----------------------

LOL. And I bet you have a better chance of receiving a nice return on your investment.
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No. of Recommendations: 1
I'm really enjoying this endless loop. Maybe Jason came over here because he figured he could sound smart in front of a bunch of naive and easily impressed oldsters. Underestimating your elders has been in vogue in this culture for decades.


"Old age and treachery will always beat youth and exuberance."
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Because you haven't explained the criteria and filters that you say you used. You have said, several times, that it's too complicated for you to explain it to us, and have just given us what you say are the stocks that you picked, and the results that you say you've had. Anyone can look at stock charts and say "I picked this list of stocks in 2014 and held until 2018 - my results speak for themselves" but it doesn't have to be true. In fact, many times, results like those are lies, with examples such as Bernie Madoff and Tom Petters, as well as the original Charles Ponzi, coming to mind.

Here's what I don't get. He says he bought 6 stocks in 2014 and then sold all of them in 2018. Then he turns around and buys 5 stocks in 2019. He did no trading in 2015, 2016, and 2017.

PSU
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100th post on this thread!
I'd explain to you guys how I did it but I don't expect you to understand it.
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Yes I did mention I put all my savings in those 6 stocks and held them for 4 years. I didn't have any more money after as l needed to pay for my university, living cost and of course a girlfriend. It's recently I started a full-time job again and started to deposit more investment fund as well as using my old fund. I am an investor, not a trader when l buy a company I hold for up to 5 years to hit my price target.

I am just wondering has anyone used Mortley fool stock recommendations for years and how is the result? I saw a review before someone who bought Netflix amazon off the recommendations has became super rich.
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The criteria I used to filter out good growth stock are:

1. EPS growth rate current year more than 15%
2. EPS growth rate more than 15% for the next 5 years
3. EPS growth rate next year more than 15%
4. Debt Equity Ratio less than 0.3
5. Price earnings ratio less than 50.
6. EPS growth and Sales growth quarter by quarter more than 15%
7. Price has to be trading above SM200 and SM50
8. Return on Equity more than 15%
7. Sales and EPS growth for the past 5 years must be positive
8. PEG ratio less than 2
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After the filter, I will select the best companies to analyze within industry rank and performance as well as the individual company analysis.
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The criteria I used to filter out good growth stock are:

1. EPS growth rate current year more than 15%
2. EPS growth rate more than 15% for the next 5 years
3. EPS growth rate next year more than 15%
4. Debt Equity Ratio less than 0.3
5. Price earnings ratio less than 50.
6. EPS growth and Sales growth quarter by quarter more than 15%
7. Price has to be trading above SM200 and SM50
8. Return on Equity more than 15%
7. Sales and EPS growth for the past 5 years must be positive
8. PEG ratio less than 2


Have you been reading Peter Lynch's books again :)

Andy
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Yes i have-) one of the best investor in the world-).


But anyways I am just wondering has anyone used Mortley fool stock recommendations for years and how is the result? I saw a review before someone who bought Netflix amazon off the recommendations has became super rich.
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I am just wondering has anyone used Mortley fool stock recommendations for years and how is the result?

If you're generating your own potential buy list from your criteria, why do you care what anyone else recommends? At best, you might run those through your screener and see if they fit your criteria. Then again, if its really a screening tool, you should already have run those stocks through it.

--Peter

PS - It's Motley Fool. There's no "r" in Motley. While many of the financial posters may be closer to mort than they'd like to be, its still Motley. ;)
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Ok here goes my full list of investment for the next 5 years:

I have just finished deriving it and I will be inputting all my fund into those stocks below:

Let me know what you guys think?

NMIH - NMI holdings INC
EPAM - EPAM System INC
FND - FLOOR AND DECOR holdings
LULU - LuLulemon Athletica
FB - Facebook
V - Visa
AMSL- AMSL holdings inc
Google
FORM - FORM factor
Trex - Trex company Inc
Exel - Exelixis
ABMD - Abiohmed INC
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But anyways I am just wondering has anyone used Mortley fool stock recommendations for years and how is the result? I saw a review before someone who bought Netflix amazon off the recommendations has became super rich.

I have been at it for about 10 years now and have done well, but you have to understand that Stock Adviser and Rule Breakers are stock recommendation newsletters. They recommend stocks and not all of them do well. But then nobody has a great record of getting everyone right.

So investing is a process, and there are many ways to invest. You can be a value investor, a dividend investor, a growth investor (the way you have your screen set up I would say this is what you are shooting for) A momo investor, a day trader and probably a lot more ways that I do not even think of. The important thing is to find the way you want to invest and hone your skills. You are going to make a lot of mistakes, everyone does, but investing will make you rich if you stick with it, read a lot of books and find the best way to win for you.

I like growth investing, but I have a few dividend stocks also. I hold no more then 15 stocks at a time. Any more then that I can't keep track of. I have lost money, and I have made money. You are still young and have plenty of time to make your money, the most important thing is to keep saving your money and put it to work for you. If you invest 20% of your pay starting now by the time you are 50 you will be a millionaire, and that is if you put the money into index funds. If you get good at picking stocks you will be a multi-millionaire by 50.

The stocks that you talk about, Amazon and Netflix are very good companies that fell many times before they finally made people rich. I have owned them both over the years and have made money on both of them. The hardest thing though for an Investor is to hold the stocks, because when netflix had their quickster problem a lot of people jumped ship and look at where they are at now. The same goes for Amazon.

So keep reading learn as much as you can, by the time you hit 50 you will be able to live off of your investments instead of holding down a job.

Andy
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Sorry and five below too.
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Andy

Thank you for your post.

Your reply motivates me a lot. Yes, that's my goal, all I can think about daily is how to invest, invest ideas and plans to become better. Right now I am focused on growth investing. I want to apply for professional fund management jobs too from July. I don't know yet if it's easy to get into.
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Your reply motivates me a lot. Yes, that's my goal, all I can think about daily is how to invest, invest ideas and plans to become better. Right now I am focused on growth investing. I want to apply for professional fund management jobs too from July. I don't know yet if it's easy to get into.

It's good to have goals. You should make them and try to hit them, short term and long term goals. So your short term goal would to be a professional fund manager and your long term goal would be to be a multi-millionaire by 50. Go gettem Jason, they both are doable.

Andy
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I have just finished deriving it and I will be inputting all my fund into those stocks below:

Let me know what you guys think?

NMIH - NMI holdings INC
EPAM - EPAM System INC
FND - FLOOR AND DECOR holdings
LULU - LuLulemon Athletica
FB - Facebook
V - Visa
AMSL- AMSL holdings inc
Google
FORM - FORM factor
Trex - Trex company Inc
Exel - Exelixis
ABMD - Abiohmed INC
Five - Five below inc
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Seems a little late to ask this, but does this actually have anything to do with Retirement Investing?
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I lost a decent about of money on Trex back in the day. Management is likely different at this point, but I understand their product, their competitors, and their market. Its not a buy and hold stock for a 5 year period, unless you believe housing/real estate and low costs funds for housing and real estate are here to stay. Its below its 50 and 200 day MA.

I assume that Flood and Decor holdings has similar exposure to changes in the market. Analysts estimates suggest it won't make 15% EPS growth this year. I suspect it has high exposure to China tariffs

NMIH has had fairly variable earnings. An EPS loss in 2015, increase in EPS in 2016, decline in 2017, and an increase in 2018 make my question the business assumptions. Are these EPS swings being driven by one time events?

Frankly, I made and lost a lot of money on a variety of stocks back in the day - COCO, TREX, FHRX and BPRX just to name a few.
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Seems a little late to ask this, but does this actually have anything to do with Retirement Investing?

Tamhas,of course this has a lot to do with retirement investing. Jason came to this board for wisdom in investing. If I was in my 20's this is exactly where I would come. Hopefully the people who have made it to retirement, can help someone who wants to retire at sometime. But he will have to wade through the curmudgeons first. Hopefully you will be helpful and not the latter.

Jason, nobody is going to tell you whether what you are investing in is right or wrong. The reason is that most of us do not own your stocks. In order to look at your stocks it takes a healthy amount of time to look at them and think if they are worthy of investing. Running a screener is just the first part of the investment process. You have to have a thesis for investing in them and your thesis might be different from mine. Then you have to read through their last 2 years of Conference calls if you can get them. Look at the last 4 years of 10 q's and 10 k's. Know exactly what the company does and get a feeling of where the company is going. It takes a lot of time and energy to look at a company and is why I do not invest in more than 15 companies. Because every quarter you have to read the companies and figure if your thesis for investing them is still holding up. The best place to find information on your companies and to discuss them is on the board for each of them. There you can find people that are up to date on the companies. Look for the ticker guides and ask your question.

Andy
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Jason,
You can ask questions of TomE, he is very helpful and if you have access to this board he can help you become a better investor.

https://boards.fool.com/4056/tapestry-tpr-formerly-coh-price...

Now if you want to see what a board about Growth investing on steroids looks like go here. But don't ask questions just read everything. They are not there to teach but find high octane growth stocks. Read the right side of the board for everything Saul has to say.

https://boards.fool.com/posts-with-my-feelings-about-my-stoc...

Andy

Those two boards will give you a college education.
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See, it wasn't that complicated.

That said, when I look at the choices that this criteria leads you to for the next 5 years, they don't seem all that diversified. Just choosing 10 - 15 different stocks doesn't mean that your portfolio is diversified, especially when several of the choices are dependent on the same macro economic factors, like NMIH, FND and TREX (housing) or AMSL and FORM (semiconductors).

And none of your criteria look directly at cash flows, which is a little worrisome.

And, as already mentioned a few times, it's Motley, NOT Mortley.

AJ
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Hi guys,

when I estimate the company's growth rate, I do take into account the free cash flow growth and what I think will be for the next 5 years.

But for some fast-growth companies, l do expect the free cash flow to be negative as the companies use the excess cash to re-invest and grow faster.

I am trying to invest in companies which are expected to grow faster than average. It's hard to find extreme and well growth companies which are really diversified. So my portfolio tends to be a little concentrated.
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Hi guys,

I have had a look at Saul's posts:

https://boards.fool.com/knowledgebase-newly-revised-part-2-3...

His method is very similar to my method in terms of looking for that super high growth in Revenue, Gross profit margin, return on equity and so on. The only difference is that he doesn't care if the company's current year EPS is negative and I do. Currently, I only invest in companies with at least 1 year of positive EPS.

For my choice NMI holding is similar to what Saul suggests:

2014 revenue 19 millions
2015 revenue 53 millions
2016 revenue 123 Millions
2017 revenue 182 millions
2018 revenue 275 millions

As we can see, the revenue year by year is much more than 50% increase required by Saul.

Its gross profit year by year is even more impressive:

2014 19 millions
2015 52 millions
2016 121 millions
2017 177 millions
2018 269 millions

That's an overly impressive gross margin of over 90%.

It's EPS is also impressive over the 5 years from making losses to now positive for the past 2 years. This is the reason on which i say it's shares can increase to 120 dollars easily.

In terms of dollar cost retention rate, i dont have a clue how this is worked out. Can someone please provide the right method to calculate the dollar cost retention rate and please guys comment on this post in regards to Saul's method analysis. I am also trying to learn and this board will be the perfect place to do so. Thank you.
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Anyone care to analyze?
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Here's your table updated a bit, with numbers taken from the annual reports found here https://ir.nationalmi.com/financial-information/annual-repor...

Year	Revenue ($MM)	YOY Growth
2013 5.56
2014 19.222 346%
2015 53.608 279%
2016 123.815 231%
2017 182.743 148%
2018 275.025 150%


As we can see, the revenue year by year is much more than 50% increase required by Saul.

While the revenue growth has been greater than 50%, I'm not sure why you expect the growth is going to continue at such a high rate for the next 5 years. The company was founded in 2011, wrote their first Mortgage Insurance policy in May, 2012 and went public in 2013, so their growth from 2013 to 2018 was starting from a very small base. By their own investor day presentation on Nov 15, 2018 https://ir.nationalmi.com/static-files/d1ecbd79-e742-4e52-ba... their market penetration of Master Policies as of 9/30/18 was 80%, compared to 50% on 9/30/14, and their active customer base penetration as of 9/30/18 was 75%, compared to 30% on 9/30/14. Given that they now have penetration of 75% - 80% of the market, it appears to me that their growth will be in line with the overall market for PMI, which is a slow growth market. The same investor day presentation shows a forecast of the overall mortgage market growth rate in the 3% - 4% range. The PMI market within the mortgage market it growing slightly faster, from 19% of the total mortgage market in 2015 to an estimate of 23% in 2018, but that's only a 16% growth rate a year in total PMI issued. At best, if NMI can continue to gain some market share, it might grow 20% a year from this point, IMO.

It's EPS is also impressive over the 5 years from making losses to now positive for the past 2 years. This is the reason on which i say it's shares can increase to 120 dollars easily.

As always, past performance does not guarantee future results. Since NMI issued their first MI policy in May, 2013, the economy has been growing with no recession - there was one down quarter (Q1 2014), but all other quarters since May, 2013 have shown positive QOQ GDP growth https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#r... Delinquency rates on residential mortgages have steadily decreased from 9.29% in Q2 2013 down to 2.67% in Q1 2019 https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Chargeoff/delallsa.h... There is no history for how this company will perform if mortgage delinquencies increase, even slightly. I would suggest that you look at how MGIC and PMI performed with even the slight upticks in delinquency rates in late 2007/early 2008 (before the full crisis hit in late 2008) to see what might happen to NMI when (not if) delinquency rates do increase even slightly.

Having been employed in the mortgage servicing industry from 2006 - 2017, I got to see the good, the bad and the truly ugly. NMI has only seen the good.

AJ
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Thank you for your contribution.

Also, I am just wondering many of the fast growth home run stocks have negative eps. In order to value the company, I will need to use an appropriate positive EPS figure. Anyone have any ideal on how to estimate the correct postive EPS predication to use for the valuation?

Also anyone knows the method David motley uses for his valuation and stock recommendation choice? I tried to look for it on the internet and can't seem to find the source at all. Please let me know, thank you.
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Please comment on my stock analysis before

By the way, my goal is to retire super rich as l am only 27 years old. I would not invest in equities if l was near retirement age.

And yes, I will be applying for a fund portfolio manager job this year in August once I have moved into my new apartment.



1. You probably won't remember this because it happened when you were 6 years old, but Long-Term Capital Management managed to crash the world's stock markets in 1998.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

LTCM was founded by the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, and the board of directors included Myron S. Scholes and Robert C. Merton, 1997 Nobel Memorial Prize winners in Economic Sciences. These guys were such geniuses that they leveraged, arbitraged and hedged every possibility and risk, guaranteeing large profits every year. Well, until some events they didn't see coming all happened simultaneously, and they crashed taking a lot of other entities with them.

So, the lesson there is even with economic genius and experience, you won't have thought of everything or been able to offload all risk, especially if you *expect* returns that are 2X-4X the overall market.

2. When you retire (maybe before age 30, if things pan out the way you say), then you will want to re-think your idea that you "would not invest in equities if [you were] near retirement age." If you live to, say, 90, that means 60 years of making your portfolio last. You (probably) won't be able to beat inflation over six decades without stocks. Plus, if you are able to retire at/before 30 thanks to your stock-picking expertise, why not rely on that skill to keep part of your portfolio ahead of inflation?

3. I had an acquaintance who used to impress people because he "was going to go to law school and be a lawyer." He actually had 30 year career as a grocery store checker/stocker until he went on disability. "I'm going to" doesn't really hold water. OTOH, if you truly are well suited to fund portfolio management, don't wait until you move to a different apartment to even apply. Take the opportunities while they exist. Every economic downturn has brought about layoffs from the fund management sector, so you'll want to have had enough time to prove yourself invaluable rather than only be applying while others are getting let go. Also, in my (admittedly limited) experience, you don't start managing funds on Day 1; the starting jobs are more analysis and support.
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Hi guys,

My username is Jasonren.

Currently, I am subscribed to both stock advisor and rule-breaker which is 19 dollars per month in a total of 40 dollars per month. However, for July, they charged me with 81 pounds. With the extra charge, they also canceled my rule breaker subscription today and now I have no access to it.

This is not acceptable at all. Their US department hasn't returned my call or email for the past week and a half. Can someone help with this situation, please?

Regards
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Hi Jason!

I'm sorry you're having this issue, and I'm reaching out to our Member Support team with this.

Thanks!
Tony
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