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No. of Recommendations: 1
Hi Jim,

You have to realize that ultimately nothing is forever. Think what might happen if TMF1000 and Dave Gardner were to vanish one day from the boards as it will indeed happen one day. We can only hope it is long enough that we have had our fill of the elixir. Just like investing in a company, you need to have an exit strategy even with investment advice. That a seasoned investor like yourself got blindsided puzzles me.

I saw it coming with GG and I wrote about it many times over my last 4-5 years at GG. I have seen the subscribership steadily declining based on the number of active board posters. I see the same happening at HG. GG had no chance anyway as its returns were not of the quality that will keep people loyal or even attract many. Beating MSCI by 10% in a volatile fashion over 6 years and losing out to SP500 is not going to win it members. I cannot believe some people using the term "thrash" for 10% better performance over 6 years. It needs to be 40-50% to call it thrashing. HG shot itself in its foot. Who would ever want to subscribe to HG based on its advertised portfolio returns? The quality and quantity of discussions have fallen too. Pay dirt closed for the same reasons - rapidly dwindling subscribership coinciding with not so great returns.

MDP is doomed for failure as well based on its very poor performance independent of the reasons. I cannot believe Jeremy defending MDP with 1.5% over SPY in 4 years by saying that mutual funds managers do worse. Defending MDP for having all its funds invested into SPY during crash does not work either. That may be an excuse for poor absolute returns but not poor relative returns to SPY. The kind of winners MDP sold early makes my head spin. I got the MDP access notice, but I have no desire to even visit the boards. As far as access to ideas is concerned if I have the best of TMF in SA, RBS, HG (superb picks still despite a lacklustre portfolio), MFO, Odyssey and II. Why do I need MDP? Odyssey is a much better deal. The portfolios are being managed by none other than superstars such as TMF1000 and TMFSarahgen both with proven records of great personal success (like retire at 40) that radiates in their posts. I am sure Odyssey will be a resounding success.

TMF has taught me that overtime only the best products run by superb managements succeed. On that standard - GG, MDP, HG portfolio, PD - did not stand a chance. Each of these products have some really good people and their failure does not reflect on all the individuals associated with the product and its management. I have tremendous regard for Nathan and Nate as individuals and analysts although I may not agree with many of their decisions. I don't blame them for GG failure. I will start a separate thread on this issue.

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