No. of Recommendations: 1
Hi Murph -

No position so please take all of below with a "grain of salt".

I think ABBV @ ~$94/share is "fairly valued" (so I'm neither bullish nor bearish).
I require a large margin of safety in my purchases; my ABBV buy price would be ~$63/share.

I sold ABBV last year (summer 2017) as its stock price approached (and slightly exceeded) my (at the time) ~$73/share "fair value". My chief reason to sell at fair value was my concerns about Humira biosimilars because Humira represents ~50% revenue / 70% profits for AbbVie.

Subsequent to my sales, ABBV rocketed up both in stock price (and intrinsic value) because of the following items:
1) AbbVie announced an agreement with Amgen that delayed Amgen's Humira biosimilar USA introduction to 2023
2) Tax Reform greatly improved AbbVie margins
3) Continued non-Humira pipeline
4) Continued optimism about Humira competing well against Humira biosimilars in 2020 and beyond.
(I am ok with all but the last one)

Net - ABBV reached a price where I was no longer comfortable holding so I sold.


My ABBV history is as follows (I believe I've adjusted prices for split/spin-offs)
* Bought full position 2011 April @ ~$27
* Sold 1/2rd 2017 June/July @ ~$74
* Sold 1/6th 2017 August @ ~$76
* Sold 1/3rd 2017 September @ ~$80

-Jeff
Print the post  

Announcements

When Life Gives You Lemons
We all have had hardships and made poor decisions. The important thing is how we respond and grow. Read the story of a Fool who started from nothing, and looks to gain everything.
Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.
Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work, and Glassdoor #1 Company to Work For 2015! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.