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Hi Randy,

Good point.

There is so much more to this thesis than I could stuff into a reasonably long article (and at just shy of 1,000 words, even that might have been too long). There's net metering and limits of how much electricity utilities are required to buy from customers; there's the utilities' own solar installations; there's the market share of SolarCity (17% of residential installations); there's the litigation between the federal government and SolarCity about the rebates claimed; there's sequestration and how that arbitrarily dropped the claim amounts, not to mention what might happen in September and beyond when Congress takes up the debt ceiling and budget debates; and so on.

Then there are a whole bunch of unknowns. How will utilities react to disruption of their business model? How much distributed power generation will happen (estimates range from near 0% to near 80%)? What useful information and revenue will SolarCity get from its monitoring of electricity use where its systems are installed? How much PV paneling will be built and sold and how much will China (which is a big proponent of solar) dump on the market? And so on, here, too. :-)

There's a lot going on and a lot that can happen. One resource which I have found of great use is the REN21 Renewables Status Report available at That organization has been following renewable energy for many years. BP also puts out the Statistical Review of World Energy:

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