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No. of Recommendations: 4
Hi Ray,

You gave me a good laugh with your imaginative way of framing the problem. Thanks!

Here's my choice: (e) None of the above, something else.

Before I explain my choice, let's look at what the market is saying.

Dr. Market and Mr. Moody

My spiffy revised X2 Mauboussin Reverse DCF Turbo-Charged Model has ingested the latest
quarterly data and run through several scenarios. Here are just a couple: Dr. Market is
saying the current price of $28 implies a zero revenue growth rate for UPST at a discount
rate of 10% and a 10% revenue growth rate for UPST at a discount rate of 20%. Both these
scenarios assume a 15% profit margin, 8% working capital investment rate, 2% fixed capital
investment rate, inflation at 5%, and tax rate increasing from 5% to 21% over five years.

Now we know that on occasion Dr. Market can turn into Mr. Moody. So I guess if we look
at what Dr. Market is telling us, maybe it's just Mr. Moody going maniac.

Answer: None of the above, something else.

I wish UPST would join that select group of companies that avoids giving guidance. It just
confuses things for everyone, including them. A new, growing business needs time to work
things out and react to new situations, espically in bringing new products to market and
dealing with everything going on in the world today. What I'm hearing is a lot of noise.

I've been buying yesterday and today at these prices where Mr. Moody is shouting FIRE!

Best to you,
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