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No. of Recommendations: 37
Hi Saul,

Yes I definitely had similar thoughts about the reiteration of OKTA’s guidance, specifically regarding how late into this quarter they brought it out. I thought I was over reacting when I’d read about your continueing to add to your OKTA position in response to Stocknovices portfolio summary, when I miss remembered the fact that your response to Stocknovice was actually five days prior to the Crowdstrike announcement.

I haven’t decided if my 4.8% position reflects my current confidence level or not, given the likelihood of OKTA further decelerating their revenue growth to Perhaps 38% or so.

Why would Sales of OKTA services be slowing relative to Crowdstrike or Zscaler for example?

Back in December Muji did write at about Cloudflare moving into OKTA’s lane. These are my notes from that:
Cloudflare moving into OKTAs lane
One of the bigger enhancements is that Cloudflare’s Access will not only protect internal services (like Zscaler's ZPA) but also external SaaS providers, acting as a Zero Trust interface over ANY of the SaaS tools a company  utilizes - going way beyond the Secure Web Gateway (SWG, a kind of firewall over SaaS tool usage) features of its sibling Gateway product. This is potent -- while still using partners for establishing identity, Cloudflare Access will be taking over all access rights and traffic restrictions from there.

Beyond that, Gateway SWG is getting WARP speed with Argo Smart Routing (aka it will take the fastest Internet paths and circumvent networking issues, with their "Waze for the Internet" service) as well as the new Magic Firewall, plus will now have browser isolation that they acquired from S2 Systems – which means the edge network is becoming your browser, and your device is seeing only the safe (malware free) "final copy". [Zscaler has a similar service, added from their Appsulate acquisition.]  An Intrusion Detection System (IDS) is also coming that will proactively scan the traffic usage of your enterprise's use of the edge network when using Cloudflare One.<i/i>

And on his Twitter feed:
muji @ hhhypergrowth

·Oct 13, 2020
Today’s new $NET One feature is a bigger deal than I thought it’d be from yesterday’s teaser. Bold moves that are understated from the headline. Cloudflare just took a big step into $OKTA ‘s lane. /1

Cloudflare Access: now for SaaS apps, too. #ZeroTrustWeek
Matthew Prince

And imagine if you could set up granular access controls within an application. Only these employees can access this particular record in Salesforce, even if Salesforce itself doesn’t provide that level of granularity. #staytuned

11:11 AM · Oct 13, 2020

It is possible the winds are blowing a bit against the fruition of The OKTA Identity Cloud

Security in general does not have any direct ROI. We all know of examples where Identity Access Management issues were the cause of past breaches. It makes sense that security is Identity Centric. But, I’m wondering if Identity Access Management is able to demonstrate the hard numbers, in security breaches thwarted in real time that Crowdstrike and Zscaler are able demonstrate for example, in order to concretely justify the expense to those paying for it.

So I do see reason for doubting the timing of building a larger position at this time, for sure.


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