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His main point sounds a lot like the Campbell-Shiller approximation. For
those unfamiliar with this arcane but academically important result, it
says formally that a high return today must be due to one of two possible
reasons - upward revisions to the expectations of cash flows in the future
or downward revisions to future expected returns (or risk premia). This
result is based on almost no assumptions and is like an accounting

What this result means, interestingly, is that current high returns must
be correlated with low future returns or that the equity risk premia are
likely mean reverting since massive changes to long run cash flow
expectations are unlikely (long run is roughly 30-40 years - most
revisions are for the 3-5 year time scale). Long run mean reversion in
equity returns does have some empirical support and seems to gel with
common sense.
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