No. of Recommendations: 12
Historical Real-dollar (inflation-adjusted) returns

I finally got around to enhancing my S&P500 historical returns spreadsheet to include actual annual, official inflation (CPI).
This is the historical S&P500 returns (including reinvested dividends), for every rolling N-year (actually N*12 month) rolling period, 1950 to 2016.
Since each annual return is inflation adjusted, these are the real purchasing-power returns, not the nominal dollar returns.

Read it this way:
The historical statistics for all rolling 20 year (240 month) periods, in CPI-adjusted real-dollars,
the median annual return was 4.3% above inflation.
The worst 20 year period was 0.6% above inflation.
The lowest quintile was 2.5% and below.
The top 4 quintiles has annual returns of 2.5% or more above inflation.


60% S&P500 / 40% bonds (10Yr T-bill)

Yrs --> 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
Avg 5.4% 4.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.6%
Med 6.0% 5.3% 4.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 4.4%
Min -30.1% -5.6% -2.7% -1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 3.0%
Max 31.1% 16.7% 10.4% 10.5% 9.2% 7.8% 6.2%
Stdev 9.7% 4.8% 3.5% 2.8% 2.1% 1.5% 0.9%

percentile* This table gives a picture of the worst-case performances.
0% -30.1% -5.6% -2.7% -1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 3.0%
5% -11.4% -2.3% -1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 2.3% 3.3%
10% -7.2% -1.4% -0.9% 0.5% 1.6% 2.6% 3.4%
20% -2.1% -0.2% 0.6% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.6%



100% S&P500

Yrs --> 1 5 10 15 20 25 30
Avg 7.7% 6.3% 5.7% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.6%
Med 8.5% 6.7% 6.1% 5.8% 5.3% 5.5% 5.4%
Min -43.7% -9.7% -5.9% -2.5% 0.0% 1.5% 3.4%
Max 51.4% 23.3% 14.9% 14.2% 12.2% 10.5% 7.8%
Stdev 15.7% 7.4% 5.2% 4.1% 3.0% 2.1% 1.3%

percentile* This table gives a picture of the worst-case performances.
0% -30.1% -5.6% -2.7% -1.0% 0.6% 1.6% 3.0%
5% -11.4% -2.3% -1.3% 0.0% 1.4% 2.3% 3.3%
10% -7.2% -1.4% -0.9% 0.5% 1.6% 2.6% 3.4%
20% -2.1% -0.2% 0.6% 1.8% 2.5% 3.0% 3.6%
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