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No. of Recommendations: 3
HofferFool,
Thoughtful analysis, but there's one big hole: the subscriber #'s you suggest are WAY BELOW "what Wall Street expects." On 1/15/02 Ladenburg Thalmann forecast 10M XM subscribers and 8M SIRI subscribers on 12/31/09. Given that >100M new vehicles will be sold in the U.S. between now and then (~35M GM), your estimate (~4M for XM) seems very low on that basis. And, that does not even count the other 100M aftermarket vehicles...

Whether your estimate of subscribers is right or not only the future will tell, but your positioning of your estimates is terribly (intentionally?) misleading.

Yes, XM has a >$435M off balance sheet obligation to GM and, yes, that's a big chunk of $$. And, if XM has only 4M subscribers in 2009, the business is in deep doo-da. BUT, if XM becomes a "standard," like cable and satellite TV, then there won't be a problem -- and, that's all been figured into the story by "Wall Street."

I'm not arguing XM is a better/ worse investment than SIRI, just that your analysis does not add much to what is already known... unless you have some well-founded/ analyzed/ researched basis for supporting your subscriber guesses.
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