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how could we tell a regular tour (maybe coincidentally for a group of insurrectionists the day before their insurrection) from a reconnaissance tour?

There shouldn't be any regular tours (for the public). Because of something called a pandemic, the Capitol is closed to visitors.

Beyond that, if a member of Congress or one of their staff arranged something, there would be records. The suspicion, iirc, was based on seeing an unusual number of unfamiliar people in the Capitol, but I don't know whether any tour-givers, or tour-takers, were identified. Surveillance photos might help to determine that. Given what happened, any tours given, or visitors admitted, in the immediate few days before the 6th ought to be checked on.
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