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Hi,I'm new to the Fool, a beginner in research as well.

I'm reading an S&P StockR Report for Global Marine (GLM) dated 03-Jan-98, wherein they project $ 19.00/barrel for crude for 1998, which has been closer to $ 14.00 for much of the year.

For you veteran market-miners: How do analysts come to the conclusions they do for these price projections? Is this level of forecasting error common?

I'm intend to buy some Global, probably some others in this sector. Oil prices being as volatile as they are (let's see, in the mid-seventies, we saw $ 40.00 oil, then $ 12.00 in the early eighties, with attendent stock price swings), I'm as interested in developing an exit strategy as one for buying.

Are there dependable indicators you have used to gauge the direction oil prices are headed?
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