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How much oil is really there? A nice article on this topic:

My takeaway:
1) Existing oil supply is meeting the demand at $60 per barrel.
2) Future oil supply is uncertain in the sense no one really know how much oil is really out there. Oil producing nation ensure that there is no excess supply under any circumstances.

My synthesis so far:
Even 0.5% mismatch between supply and demand, real or speculative, is enough to make the prices skyrocket due to sheer volume of oil trade. Speculation is most damaging as it bets on supply being unable to meet demand and to do away with speculation impact, legitimate oil demand must scale down which is almost impossible without a major economic slowdown in a system where oil is the engine of global economy and every ounce is well accounted for in the consumption side.
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